Shanghai Metals Market reported Russian Decree No. 785 of 25 June 2026 extending the industrial sulfur export ban covering liquid, granular, and lump sulfur to 31 December 2026. Officials framed the extension as prioritizing domestic fertilizer production and food security. Combined with the May Kazakh rail transit halt, CIS sulfur availability for Morocco and Brazil routes remained constrained into the second half.
The SMM flash that also covers the next day's Kazakh suspension is at https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103978838-smm-flash-kazakhstan-follows-russia-in-full-suspension-of-sulfur-exports. Russia's own ban is the first door. Kazakhstan's order is the second. Roszheldor's 26 May transit halt is the lock on the corridor between them.
TFI's August interview later treated the Russia ban through end-2026 as taking two of the three largest traded sulfur sources offline together with Hormuz. That is the association's ranking, not a USGS table. It is consistent with CRU's more than 45 percent Middle East seaborne share plus a CIS book that had been a regular Atlantic option.
Domestic fertilizer and food security is the stated Russian rationale. It is not a sulfur-price rationale. Recovered sulfur that stays inside Russia can still make phosphate for the Russian and neighbouring farm belt. It cannot make Jorf MAP or Mosaic DAP. Export bans reallocate tonnes. They do not create them.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. A Russian ban through year-end is a dated reason for that stem to stay busy into the fourth quarter. SMM's 5.22 million tonne annualized 2026 Canadian pace assumes the CIS doors stay shut. Decree 785 is that assumption written as law until 31 December.
USGS MCS 2026 did not list Russia among the top US elemental import sources for 2021-24. Canada, Mexico, Iraq, and Kazakhstan were the named shares. A Russian ban matters to the US through global seaborne tightness and Tampa, not through a large direct US import share. Tampa Q3 at $705 per long ton (Argus, https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt) is that tightness in a Florida contract.
Kazakhstan's 27 June suspension, one day later, closed the other CIS origin that had used Russian ports. The 25 June decree should be read with that next-day order, not as a standalone. Together they remove the Baltic and Black Sea sulfur option for the rest of 2026 unless a further decree reopens it.
Phosphate plants that had tendered Russian or Kazakh granular now tender US Gulf solids, Vancouver solids, or wait. Unusual Q2 Gulf destinations in North Africa and East Africa are one result. Canadian June destinations led by Indonesia and the United States are another.
The desk will treat 31 December 2026 as the stated expiry, not as a forecast of extension or lapse. Figures follow the SMM report of Decree No. 785. Licensed weekly grids are not redistributed.