Argus assessed US Gulf refinery spot sulfur exports at $1,100-1,150 per tonne FOB on 9 July 2026, well above the Tampa domestic liquid contract. The open-news item that carries the Tampa Q3 settlement also carries this Gulf solid band: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt.
Q2 cargoes reached unusual destinations including North Africa for fertilizer and East Africa for the copper belt as Middle East flows dwindled. Those are not the traditional US Gulf sulfur destinations. They are the geography of a Hormuz hole: buyers who used to lift in the Arabian Gulf lifting on the Mississippi instead.
Some US Gulf producers lack solid-export infrastructure and remain dependent on domestic molten consumers, raising demand-destruction risk if phosphate runs stay curtailed. A refinery that can only pour molten into Florida and Louisiana cannot capture $1,100 FOB. It captures Tampa. In this cycle that is $705 per long ton delivered for the third quarter.
Gulf solids leaving for North Africa and East Africa leave less molten for Florida phosphate and more room for Canadian Pacific tonnes to hold swing-supplier status. Vancouver versus Gulf basis is the North American read on that diversion. SMM put FOB Vancouver on a path from about $500 per tonne in January toward $825-950 by April. Gulf solids at $1,100-1,150 in July are the other post.
CRU's mid-year update estimated Middle East sulfur production loss around 2.3 million tonnes and monthly exports down more than 1.0 million tonnes since March. The region contributed over 45 percent of seaborne sulfur trade in 2025. US Gulf solids at four-digit FOB are the Atlantic remainder bid for that missing million tonnes a month.
Phosphate affordability is the cap. OCP cut Moroccan runs by as much as 50 percent in Q2. Mosaic curtailed at three US and Brazil locations. SunSirs later put Chinese MAP utilization toward 40 percent and DAP toward 30 percent in May. A $1,100 FOB solid that no phosphate plant can afford is a print that later has to come down or sit on unsold cargoes.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. Canadian June elemental exports, in the later SMM customs note, still found 158,031 tonnes into the United States and 198,612 tonnes into Indonesia. Gulf diversion to Africa does not empty those books. It does set a ceiling idea that Vancouver FOB can chase.
USGS MCS 2026 put US all-forms production at 8.1 million tonnes in 2025 and net import reliance at 14 percent. Export-capable Gulf refineries are a slice of that 8.1 million, not the whole. The $1,100-1,150 band is a spot export indication for the slice that can form and load dry bulk.
Licensed weekly assessment grids are not restated. The $1,100-1,150 FOB band and the $705 Tampa contract keep the original Argus URL. ChemAnalyst early-July commentary described a relatively stable domestic US spot tone despite high global prices, citing adequate refinery output and inventories. Domestic molten and export solid have split.
The desk will watch whether further Q3 fixtures stay in North Africa and East Africa or return to traditional Atlantic destinations if Hormuz loadings recover. Until CRU's 1 million tonne a month Gulf restoration prints, unusual destinations remain the base case.