CRU reports OCP cut Moroccan phosphate capacity by up to 50 percent through the second quarter of 2026 as sulfur availability and prices deteriorated. Mosaic also curtailed at three US and Brazil locations. The 14 July BC Insight and CRU sulphur market update is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2026/07/14/sulphur-market-update/.
Separate Argus reporting in mid-July said OCP had been operating near 50 percent in June on sulfur shortage but theoretically had enough sulfur to run at full rates in July-August if logistics held. Sulfur rationing, not only price, is now the binding constraint for several phosphate majors. A plant that has sulfur on a warehouse sheet still needs vessels, berths, and acid-plant uptime.
Morocco is not a recovered-sulfur surplus country. OCP's Jorf and Safi complexes buy seaborne solid sulfur to make sulfuric acid for phosphate rock. When Hormuz dry bulk stalls and CIS exports stop, those complexes compete with Brazilian, Indian, Indonesian, and Chinese buyers for the remaining tonnes. Half-rate running is how that competition clears.
Middle East production loss in the same CRU update was around 2.3 million tonnes since conflict onset, with monthly exports down more than 1.0 million tonnes since March. The region contributed over 45 percent of seaborne sulfur trade in 2025. Spot FOB prices in that account climbed from roughly $500 per tonne pre-conflict to $1,100-1,200 per tonne by late June, exceeding 2008 and 2022 peaks.
US phosphate curtailments are the North American demand print on the same shortage. Tampa molten and Gulf solids move first. Alberta inventory and Vancouver loadings follow if Florida and Louisiana stay short. TFI's later August interview named four Mosaic units cut earlier in the summer and Mosaic's Q3 molten settlement at $705 per long ton.
Argus open news on 13 July put that Tampa Q3 contract at $705 per long ton delivered, up $50 from $655 in Q2 (https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt). US Gulf spot solid exports in the same cycle were $1,100-1,150 per tonne FOB, including unusual Q2 destinations in North Africa and East Africa. Those Gulf solids leaving for Africa are tonnes that did not stay as molten for Florida.
Chinese phosphate utilization, in SunSirs' May customs note, was reported toward about 40 percent for MAP and about 30 percent for DAP as sulfur costs soared as a share of production cost. China, Morocco, and Mosaic cutting together is a three-continent demand response. It is not a local Florida outage.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. A 50 percent OCP cut is a bid that may later return if logistics hold, as Argus suggested for July-August. It is also a warning that phosphate affordability can cap how many Canadian remelt tonnes the market can absorb at $1,100 FOB ideas.
SMM's Canadian 5.22 million tonne annualized 2026 pace assumes someone buys those tonnes. OCP at half rate, Mosaic curtailed, and Chinese MAP and DAP at 30-40 percent utilization are the someone. The desk will treat further phosphate run cuts, or a documented Jorf return toward full rate, as the next demand print.
Figures follow CRU, Argus open news, and the named later TFI and SunSirs items. Licensed weekly assessment grids are not redistributed.