Shanghai Metals Market's first-half 2026 sulfur chain review put Canada on a swing-supplier path after Hormuz disruption and restricted Russian and Kazakh exports. The public analysis dated the national 2025 sulfur export print at 4.25 million tonnes, up 40.7 percent year on year, and said first-four-month 2026 export value was already $1.049 billion, annualized near 5.22 million tonnes.
Alberta and British Columbia account for more than 95 percent of those national sulfur exports in the SMM account. That is recovered gas-plant and oil-sands sulfur leaving Pacific terminals, not a new Claus industry summoned by price. The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority's 2025 Statistics Overview, posted in March 2026, put Port of Vancouver sulphur at 3,507,428 metric tonnes, up 5 percent from 2024, the last full-year port anchor on the desk.
SMM described FOB Vancouver rising from about $500 per metric tonne in January 2026 to $825-950 per metric tonne by April. Those are industry-estimate prints from a public trade-press review, not a licensed weekly assessment grid. The same review warned that a Hormuz reopening is not an instant fix: mine clearance, stranded-vessel clearance, and damaged Gulf production may keep Middle East seaborne recovery slow into late summer.
The Fertilizer Institute, via Fertilizer Daily's 18 August write-up of Corey Rosenbusch's 6 August interview, had already framed sulfur as the next phosphate bottleneck. More than half of globally traded sulfur normally transits Hormuz, and commercial shipments have been described as near-zero since the Iran conflict. Russia's export ban now runs through 31 December 2026.
Argus open news on 13 July put the Tampa Q3 molten contract at $705 per long ton delivered, up $50 per long ton from $655 in the second quarter, after that quarter had already cleared the 2008 peak. The original item is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt. US Gulf spot solid exports in the same cycle were cited above $1,100 per tonne FOB.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. World supply shocks show up there as stem tightness, remelt draws, and a Gulf-versus-Pacific basis. Forming plants between Edmonton and the Fort McMurray upgrader belt do not raise Claus output because sulfur is expensive. They form, rail, and load what sour-gas and bitumen plants already recover.
BC Insight's 23 March oil-sands note estimated Canada produced about 4.7 million tonnes of sulfur in 2025 and exported about 4.57 million tonnes, third behind the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Oil sands contributed about 3.0 million tonnes, or 63 percent of Canadian output. High prices drove inventory declines through 2025, with about 1.5 million tonnes of blocked Canadian sulfur expected to be remelted and sold across 2025-2030.
Argus, citing Alberta Energy Regulator data, put provincial sulfur inventories at 11.66 million tonnes in July 2025, down 377,000 tonnes year on year and the lowest since May 2019. That draw is the physical counterpart of the Vancouver loading pace SMM later annualized. Remelt, rail, forming, and terminal charges have often been cited above $150 per tonne, so the FOB Vancouver path SMM described from $500 toward $825-950 is what made the draw economic.
China remains the swing destination even when its share slips. VFPA's 2025 destination table put China at 1.30 million tonnes, down 16 percent, with Australia at 597,000 tonnes, Indonesia at 371,000 tonnes, and the United States at 302,000 tonnes, up 191 percent. SMM's 21 August customs note then put June 2026 Canadian elemental sulfur exports at 527,305 tonnes, with Indonesia and the United States leading that month's destinations.
The desk read on 24 August is therefore a corridor, not a headline. Canada is shipping at a record annualized pace while Middle East seaborne stays impaired and CIS doors stay closed. Tampa molten at $705 per long ton and Gulf solids above $1,100 per tonne FOB are the Atlantic prints. Vancouver is the Pacific answer, and Alberta block remains the inventory that can still be remelted if those netbacks hold.
SMM's source article is the H1 2026 chain review at https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103989791-smm-analysis-h1-2026-sulfur-industry-chain-review-extreme-volatility-under-supply-shocks. Figures in this item follow that public analysis and the named government and port prints. Licensed Argus and Platts weekly assessment grids are not restated here.