Reuters reported August 25 that Brazilian fertilizer imports fell about 10% year to date through July and were down roughly 50% in August as high prices and weak farm margins cut demand.
Mosaic Brazil country manager Eduardo Monteiro told the Sao Paulo congress that the national fertilizer market may shrink from a 2025 record near 49 million tonnes to a 42-45 million tonne band this year.
Monteiro said the sector had managed 2026 with pre-conflict inventories but warned that reduced application threatens soybean and corn productivity on the 2026/27 crop planted from September.
Brazil imports about 90% of the fertilizer it applies. Sulfur and sulfuric acid are the binding inputs for phosphate plants, and roughly 60% of world sulfur production normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
Mosaic announced temporary production cuts and hibernation at Brazilian phosphate units in July as sulfur supply tightened. Monteiro framed the requested R$2 billion three-month subvention as insurance against a much larger fiscal hit.
He put potential public-finance damage at R$20-30 billion if subsidy support fails, arguing each real of subvention could avert ten to fifteen reais of lost activity, tax, and trade balance.
Monteiro said the topic sits in a government situation room with Agriculture, Mines and Energy, Casa Civil, and Finance ministries, but no decision has been taken.
Even an immediate end to the Iran conflict could leave supply normalization about 12 months away, he added, with China and Russia still restricting exports and Ukrainian attacks hitting Russian installations.
Sinprifert separately quantified industry consumption near 250,000 tonnes of sulfur and 60,000 tonnes of sulfuric acid per month. Brazil's phosphate chain is a major seaborne sulfur buyer when Hormuz flows are normal.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. Brazil's import collapse is demand-side rationing, not a Pacific supply failure, but it shows how far phosphate affordability has moved from pre-conflict norms.
Desk read: August import halving is the new quantitative print on top of the subsidy debate. Vancouver stem loadings answer supply shocks; Brazil's August number shows demand destruction on the other side of the same shortage.