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Shengyishe benchmark holds 8,602 yuan as model flags oscillating rebound

September 4 national index unchanged on the day, up 3.03 percent month to date. Technical read calls the move a strong rebound, not a new trend.

Sulfur terminal dock at dusk in rain
A Pacific sulfur dock in weather. Loaders, not AIS, set whether Alberta blocks become cargo. Sulfur Wire · Original

Shengyishe published its September 4 sulfur benchmark at 8,602.33 yuan per tonne on Friday morning, unchanged from the prior session in the platform's daily release.

Against the September 1 month-start print of 8,349 yuan, the benchmark is up 3.03 percent through the first four trading days of the month.

The same September 4 technical note classified the market as oscillating with a strong rebound bias rather than a directional breakout.

Five- and ten-day average spreads turned positive day on day while the twenty-day spread remained negative, a pattern Shengyishe associates with recovery from mid-August lows.

Positioning bands put the price in the second tier on sixty-day and three-month horizons but the fourth tier on a one-year view, implying limited near-term downside and constrained upside against the 2025 to 2026 range.

Guidechem's September 3 chemical price sheet aligned with the national index at 8,602 yuan, with zero daily change but weekly and monthly declines of 6.57 and 8.15 percent still embedded in the longer window.

That divergence between a flat September 4 print and still-negative monthly momentum matches the desk read from Longzhong and Oilchem that early September firming is a bounce, not a demand-led rally.

Downstream phosphate finished products stayed weak in open fertilizer coverage through September 4, so sulfur's national index is tracking cost-input restocking rather than MAP or DAP strength.

For the Vancouver stem, a national Chinese benchmark that stops falling and starts oscillating higher supports continued Pacific nomination interest even when FOB quotes lag domestic moves.

SMM's June Canadian export account listed 32,730 tonnes to China among destinations, so Pacific loadings still correlate with Chinese import appetite even when Hormuz seaborne remains impaired.

Alberta recovered sulfur has been the swing Pacific supply through 2026. A benchmark that holds above the early-September correction zone reduces the odds of a near-term nomination pause at import terminals.

USGS Mineral Industry Surveys remain paused on public posting, so open Chinese benchmark and refinery accounts are the timely demand signals for Pacific basis until MIS resumes.

Desk read: September 4 confirms the national index has stabilized in the 8,600 yuan area with rebound characteristics. Watch whether Pacific FOB follows with a lag or holds as Canada keeps clearing block inventory into export channels.

Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints Mt 2021 12 2022 12 2023 12 2024 12 2025 12 AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)
Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)