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Shengyishe September 6 mean-difference signals slowing decline after August correction

Ten-day minus twenty-day spread at negative 312.17 yuan per tonne. Platform classifies the shift from negative expansion to negative contraction as a potential inflection.

Sulfur terminal dock at dusk in rain
A Pacific sulfur dock in weather. Loaders, not AIS, set whether Alberta blocks become cargo. Sulfur Wire · Original

Shengyishe published its September 6 sulfur technical read on Saturday evening, putting the mean difference at negative 312.17 yuan per tonne.

The calculation uses the ten-day moving average minus the twenty-day average, or 8,618.00 minus 8,930.17 in the platform's release.

Shengyishe classified the day as a shift from negative expansion to negative contraction, a pattern it associates with a slowing decline rather than an accelerating sell-off.

The platform's commentary framed the move as a potential inflection after the August correction that pulled granular prices at Zhenjiang from above 10,000 yuan per tonne in June toward the 7,500 yuan area by late month.

The September 4 national benchmark held at 8,602.33 yuan per tonne, unchanged on the day and up 3.03 percent from the September 1 month-start print of 8,349 yuan.

That leaves the national index above the early-September port granular prints near 7,550 yuan while the moving-average structure still shows the twenty-day line above the ten-day line.

Longzhong's September 4 review had already described early September as a stabilization bounce with autumn phosphate stocking below expectations, so the September 6 technical signal does not by itself imply a demand-led rally.

Feidoodoo's September 1 phosphate fertilizer daily put Zhenjiang granular at 7,550 yuan and Dafeng at 7,530 yuan, both unchanged from the prior session, with buyers and sellers trading at rational levels after weeks of volatility.

Port inventory at 961,400 tonnes on September 1, published by Shengyishe on September 2, remains a supply-side weight on spot prices even as the national benchmark stops falling.

For the Vancouver stem, a Chinese national index that decelerates its decline supports continued Pacific nomination interest when FOB quotes have lagged domestic moves through August.

SMM's June Canadian export account listed 32,730 tonnes to China among destinations, so Pacific loadings still correlate with Chinese import appetite even when Hormuz seaborne remains impaired.

Alberta recovered sulfur has been the swing Pacific supply through 2026. A technical inflection in the national benchmark reduces the odds of an immediate nomination pause at import terminals.

Desk read: September 6 confirms the decline is losing momentum in Shengyishe's moving-average framework. Watch whether port granular prices follow the national index higher or whether high inventories cap the bounce.

Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints Mt 2021 12 2022 12 2023 12 2024 12 2025 12 AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)
Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)