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Shengyishe September 17 trend flags weak rebound as spreads improve but stay negative

Five-day spread improves to negative 292.33 yuan from negative 479.38 yuan. Platform publishes (+,-,-) bearish weak-rebound signal. No new September 17 benchmark yuan print.

A Chinese deepwater port. China remains a swing destination for Vancouver sulfur.
A Chinese deepwater port. China remains a swing destination for Vancouver sulfur. Tibor Végh / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 3.0

Shengyishe's September 17 sulfur trend analysis classified the market as a weak rebound with a bearish bias in open platform terminology.

The five-day average spread improved to negative 292.33 yuan per tonne from negative 479.38 yuan on September 16, a less negative short-term reading after two sharp down sessions.

The ten-day spread moved to negative 153.96 yuan per tonne from negative 60.41 yuan on September 16, while the twenty-day spread deepened to negative 233.86 yuan from negative 206.94 yuan.

That combination produces a (+, -, -) spread signal Shengyishe labels weak rebound, distinct from the clearly declining read published on September 16 when all three spreads worsened.

The trend note did not publish a new September 17 national benchmark yuan price. The last open benchmark print remained 7,704.00 yuan per tonne on Wednesday morning September 16.

Desks should not infer a September 17 benchmark level from the trend page alone without a separate Shengyishe benchmark release.

The technical improvement in the five-day spread follows the September 15 correction from 8,352.33 yuan to 7,869.00 yuan and the further step to 7,704.00 yuan on September 16.

Port inventory near 884,000 tonnes in BC Insight's September 15 account and granular import CFR prints at 1,000 to 1,050 dollars in SunSirs' week-of-15 September review continue to cap spot upside.

Hormuz commodity vessel counts remained in single digits on September 15 and 16 in Reuters shipping data, keeping Middle East seaborne sulfur off the market regardless of domestic Chinese technical signals.

BC Insight cited roughly 450,000 tonnes of sulfur waiting to transit Hormuz in Kpler data the same week, a backlog consistent with impaired bulk flows rather than normalized Gulf loadings.

For Alberta recovered sulfur on the Vancouver stem, a weak-rebound technical label does not restore Gulf tonnes or lower Pacific insurance premiums on its own.

Public reference hubs on the desk still anchor FOB Vancouver granular near 1,045 dollars per tonne and FOB US Gulf granular near 1,125 dollars per tonne on June and July 2026 industry_estimate mids.

Canadian HS 2503 elemental sulfur remains off Ottawa's September counter-tariff tables, so trade-lane risk is still list-text risk rather than an active duty on sulfur exports.

Desk read: September 17 is a softer bearish technical tone, not a price print. Until Shengyishe publishes a benchmark, treat 7,704 yuan on September 16 as the last open national anchor.