Sulfur cycle 2021-2026

The elemental sulfur market from 2021 through 2026 is one continuous cycle with four phases: pandemic aftermath, spike and collapse, soft prices with rising Canadian volumes, then a geopolitics-driven supply shock.

Phase one was the COVID soft market into 2021. Recovered sulfur is a byproduct of oil, gas, and refining. When fuel demand and refinery throughputs fell in 2020, sulfur availability tightened even as prices took time to reprice. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries recorded Tampa, Florida molten contracts beginning 2021 near about $69 per long ton, then rising to about $183/lt by late 2021 as supply issues and demand recovery interacted. Port of Vancouver sulphur throughput for 2021 was 2.29 million tonnes, down from 2.65 million tonnes in 2020. Soft Pacific netbacks kept Alberta pour-to-block economics relevant whenever remelt, rail, forming, and terminal costs were not covered.

Phase two was the 2022 spike and collapse. Tampa contracts began 2022 near $282/lt and reached $481/lt in early April per USGS. Vancouver spot midpoints near $478/t FOB, described by Argus as the highest since 2008, aligned with that peak. An Argus sample in late May 2022 showed Vancouver-China freight for large stems near $41-46/t, so delivered costs into Asia were extreme. From July into August the market reversed. Open fertilizer commentary citing Fertecon described roughly an 80% drop in Vancouver spots over about five weeks. Argus recounted prices falling toward under $65/t FOB as phosphate demand destroyed. BC Insight documented Middle East FOB averages collapsing from about $485/t in June toward about $71/t in early August. Tampa Q4 2022 settled at $90/lt. Yet Vancouver still shipped 2.79 Mt of sulphur in 2022, up 22% year on year, showing programmed volumes can rise even as spot prices crash.

Phase three was 2023-24 softness with structural volume growth. Prices stayed moderate: Tampa began 2024 at $69/lt and only reached $116/lt by Q4 2024 per USGS MCS 2025. Vancouver sulphur rose to about 3.10 Mt in 2023 (+11%) and 3.3 Mt in 2024 (+8%). Keyera and Enbridge’s South Cheecham sulphur facilities started in early Q3 2023, adding Fort McMurray-area forming. BC Insight summarized 2023 Canadian production near 4.5 Mt with exports near 4.1 Mt, split between molten rail to the US and solid Pacific loadings. Alberta inventories remained large; remelt stayed selective.

Phase four began with the 2025 rally and Alberta draw, then the 2026 shock. Argus reported January-July 2025 Vancouver averages of $238/t FOB, more than triple the prior-year window, with solid exports of 2.04 Mt in that period. AER data via Argus showed Alberta inventory at 11.66 Mt in July 2025, lowest since May 2019. Vancouver finished 2025 at 3.5 Mt sulphur. In late February 2026, Hormuz dry-bulk disruption stranded Gulf sulfur and cut Middle East seaborne flows that had supplied roughly half of trade. Canadian Q1 2026 exports and sharply higher FOB Vancouver featured in open SMM analysis. Tampa Q3 2026 molten settled at a record $705/lt per Argus. Freight on Middle East-China lanes in open H1 tables moved from the mid-$20s/t toward the $160s/t.

Across the cycle, three structural facts held. First, supply does not respond elastically to price. Second, Alberta inventory and remelt are the Canadian swing. Third, Vancouver volume growth from 2.29 Mt to 3.5 Mt (2021-2025) made Canada a larger Pacific fixture before the 2026 crisis tested that role. UNCERTAIN items remain the exact AER month-end series for every quarter and licensed weekly FOB prints stay behind commercial licenses.

Sulfur cycle 2021-2026

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