Sulfur price outlook 2027: open Longzhong read and desk drivers

Key numbers · open sources · 12 Nov 2026

China sulfur benchmark (Shengyishe / 100ppi)	5,151.75 CNY/t	Flat d/d; −3.6% vs Nov open 5,344.25
2026 China port spot range (Longzhong / Sina)	4,050 to 11,750 CNY/t	Low late Feb; high early/mid Jun
ME shipments to China y/y through Sep	−70.55%	Longzhong cite on Sina Finance
Yangtze / Shandong spot (ChemNet 12 Nov)	5,000–5,100 / 5,250–5,400 CNY/t	~55% below June highs on 100ppi data

Searches for sulfur price outlook 2027, sulphur price forecast 2027, or China sulfur forecast next year usually mix licensed price reporting agency grids with Chinese research house seasonal commentary. This page cites open Longzhong language republished on Sina Finance 12 November 2026 and ties it to the documented 2026 peak-to-now path in china-benchmark-daily.json. Sulfur Wire adds Alberta and Vancouver corridor context only; every yuan and dollar figure below links to its publisher URL.

Longzhong's Sina Finance article places 2026 China port spot between 4,050 yuan per metric tonne in late February and 11,750 yuan in early and mid June, matching the domestic narrative of a Hormuz-driven first-half spike and a second-half unwind. Shengyishe's 100ppi morning benchmark on 12 November 2026 held 5,151.75 yuan, flat day on day and 3.6 percent below the 5,344.25 yuan November open, a level ChemNet on the same date quoted when it described Yangtze imported granular at 5,000 to 5,100 yuan and Shandong refinery liquid at 5,250 to 5,400 yuan, roughly 55 percent below June highs on monitored 100ppi data.

For the mechanical 2026 unwind from the June cyclical high, see sulfur price June peak to now and the daily CSV at china-sulfur-price-history.csv. For generic 2026 and 2027 driver lists without seasonal highs and lows, see sulfur price forecast on the same site.

Middle East export recovery via Hormuz is the first open driver Longzhong highlights for 2027. The research house put Middle East sulfur shipments to China down 70.55 percent year on year through September 2026, citing early-year strait disruption and weaker Chinese purchasing when dollar cargoes stayed expensive against soft phosphate margins. Pacific desks read that as stem competition risk: if Middle East loadings normalize while Chinese replacement cost stays near 5,150 yuan, Vancouver and Gulf offers face tighter nomination windows.

China phosphate export policy is the second driver on the open wire. Longzhong tied reduced Middle East dependence to domestic measures on phosphate and sulfuric acid exports and to directed supply from major state refiners to fertilizer producers, a mix that softened apparent import demand even while port spot prices were falling from the June ceiling.

Domestic refinery supply is the third leg. Longzhong notes that Chinese sulfur remains largely refinery and gas-field byproduct, with downstream phosphate, caprolactam, and titanium dioxide chains moving at different correlations through 2026. When MAP and DAP margins stay compressed on open Chinese feeds, benchmark sulfur can fall faster than seaborne FOB markers, a pattern Alberta exporters felt when ChemPriceHub's mid-October Vancouver granular band sat near 830 to 840 dollars per tonne FOB against a halved yuan replacement cost.

Longzhong's forward view on the Sina article expects 2027 domestic sulfur prices to trend lower inside a volatile range, with the year's high likely in mid to late first quarter 2027 and the low in the fourth quarter of 2027, driven by policy windows, external Gulf intervention, and more flexible buyer timing. Sulfur Wire labels that paragraph explicitly as Longzhong industry analysis on an open republish; it is directional language, not a Sulfur Wire numeric target.

The same article flags a possible China sulfur futures contract as a market-structure variable. If a listed contract arrives, spot volatility and hedge linkage to phosphate chains could change; Sulfur Wire will tag only published contract specs once an exchange rulebook is open.

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FAQ

What does Longzhong say about 2027 China sulfur prices?

On Sina Finance 12 November 2026, Longzhong expects 2027 domestic sulfur prices to trend lower inside a volatile range, with the high likely in mid to late Q1 2027 and the low in Q4 2027, citing policy shifts, Gulf-linked supply, and buyer flexibility.

What were the 2026 China port spot extremes?

Longzhong via the same Sina article cites a 2026 port spot low at 4,050 yuan per tonne in late February and a high at 11,750 yuan in early and mid June, with the national 100ppi benchmark at 5,151.75 yuan on 12 November 2026.

How much did Middle East sulfur exports to China fall in 2026?

Longzhong put Middle East shipments to China down 70.55 percent year on year through September 2026 on the 12 November Sina Finance republish, attributing the drop to Hormuz disruption and softer Chinese demand.

Is a China sulfur futures contract likely?

Longzhong's 12 November article flags a possible domestic sulfur futures listing as a structural change; Sulfur Wire will cite only published exchange rules once they appear on open feeds.

Where can I see the 2026 benchmark path and per-tonne hub rows?

Use sulfur price June peak to now for the daily benchmark unwind, sulfur price per ton for open hub rows with provenance, and china-sulfur-price-history.csv for machine-readable history.

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