2022 spike peak: Vancouver near $480/t and elevated Pacific freight

Second-quarter 2022 marked the cycle high for many sulfur benchmarks. Argus later recounted Vancouver spot midpoint near $478 per tonne FOB, its highest since 2008, as phosphate demand rallied. An Argus Sulphur sample dated 26 May 2022 showed FOB Vancouver around $476-480 per tonne, FOB US Gulf $380-381, CFR Brazil $458-470, and CFR Tampa $481 per long ton. Vancouver-China freight for 50-60,000 tonne stems sat near $41-46 per tonne. Middle East producer markers on the same sample put Qatar Sulphur Price at $460 per tonne FOB Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, UAE OSP and Kuwait KSP at $470. These are public sample-sheet prints already in the intel file, not a licensed weekly assessment grid redistributed as a table. USGS independently records Tampa at $481 per long ton in early April. Together they are the global high plateau.

IndexBox put China's sulfur import price at a 2022 peak near $471 per tonne CIF in June, with June volumes near 948,000 tonnes, before three consecutive monthly declines. Argus put second-quarter Chinese sulfur imports at 2.4 million tonnes, up 50 percent year on year, driven by phosphate fertilizer exports. April imports of 719,800 tonnes, up 24 percent, came while DAP and MAP exports fell 157 percent and 52 percent to 195,000 and 179,000 tonnes as inspections constrained outflows from mid-April. Sulfur imports up, phosphate exports down, is the mixed-policy quarter. Plants still pulled feedstock. They could not ship the same DAP. July's de-facto quota is still weeks away on 15 June. Huaxicun Commodity Contracts Exchange stopped sulfur trading from 16 June after authorities deemed it non-standard, removing a domestic paper venue at the physical peak.

Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. $478 FOB paid remelt, rail, forming, and terminal. Port of Vancouver sulphur for full-year 2022 reached 2,787,073 tonnes, up 22 percent from 2.29 million in 2021. Argus citing port data showed January-October loadings of 2.39 million tonnes, already exceeding full-year 2021. Dry-bulk strength amplified delivered costs into China and India. First-half stems programmed at $400-plus FOB are why the annual could still print 2.79 million tonnes after the crash. Heartland forming existed. South Cheecham did not. The spike was handled by the 2021-era chain. Argus estimated Cheecham's 4,000 tonnes a day could lift Vancouver-linked capacity 5 to 10 percent in 2023, subject to demand. That is a 2023 footnote. Second-quarter 2022 did not need it.

US production about 8.6 million tonnes, elemental recovered about 8.0 million, unit value about $150 per tonne from $92.30 in 2021, shipments near $1.3 billion, is the USGS spike-year annual. Elevated Gulf refining from resilient fuel demand added recovered tonnes even as Mosaic, the largest US sulfur consumer, reported sinking utilization. Two arrows that would mismatch in the third quarter still coexisted in June: expensive phosphate sulfur and busy refineries. TFI's plus 198 percent sulfur cost March 2021 to March 2022 is the farm-input context. Russia's February invasion is the risk-premium context. Chinese inspections from October 2021 are the policy context. Three supports under $481 Tampa and $478 Vancouver.

Domestic Chinese river-port sulfur near Yn4,000-4,020 per tonne ex-works in mid-May, with about 10,000 tonnes of trades around Yn4,000-4,030, sat in the same expensive neighbourhood as $471 CIF. Chinese phosphate plants were paying spike prices for both domestic and imported sulfur. That is a tight physical market. It is also why the crash was violent. There was a long way down. World output about 82 million tonnes, UAE about 6.0 million, Canada about 4.9 million, is the Claus planet that produced a $481 peak without a nameplate collapse. Logistics and demand made the spike. They would unmake it.

For netback models, second-quarter 2022 is the stress case for both commodity and freight. Vancouver-China $41-46 per tonne on 50-60,000 tonne stems meant CFR Asia cleared far above FOB. Canadian Pacific competed without a Hormuz chokepoint, but inland rail and forming still set the pace of offer volumes. Dry-bulk strength across the wider commodity complex raised the opportunity cost of holding vessels for sulfur versus grain or coal. Licensed weekly assessment grids are not restated here. UNCERTAIN: exact weekly peak print dates vary by assessment service; treat about $480 per tonne FOB Vancouver as the public mid-year high cluster.

Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. World tightness shows up there as remelt tickets that pay and a harbour that can add 22 percent in a year. Second-quarter 2022 is the reference peak for the five-year cycle. Later comparisons with 2026 must respect level even when 2026 delivered prices went higher still. It is also the reminder that peaks can reverse within a quarter when phosphate margins break. July's quota is that break. June 15 is the last week of the plateau. IndexBox's later $2.3 billion 2022 Chinese import-value peak is this quarter's expensive tonnes averaged with the rest of the year. TFI members paying plus 198 percent sulfur cost into April's $481 Tampa are the same plants Mosaic would later cut utilization on. Canadian forming plants loading toward 2.39 million tonnes by October are the same plants that would pour to block at $65 FOB. Second-quarter 2022 does not contain those later decisions. It contains $478 FOB, $41-46 freight, and a Chinese bid that had not yet been quota'd. That is the peak file. Everything after 1 July is a different market.

Key points

• Argus: Vancouver spot midpoint ~$478/t FOB at 2022 peak (highest since 2008).
• Argus sample 26 May 2022: Vancouver-China freight ~$41-46/t (50-60 kt).
• Port of Vancouver sulphur 2022: 2.79 Mt (+22% YoY).
• Tampa Q2 2022 molten ~$481/lt aligned with the global spike.
• UNCERTAIN: peak-week assessment differences across Argus/Fertecon/CRU.

30-day watchlist

• July Chinese phosphate-export policy versus April's inspection-constrained DAP plunge.
• USGS mid-July Tampa print versus the $481/lt April peak.
• June China CIF confirmation versus IndexBox's about $471/t peak.
• Any Huaxicun halt follow-through in physical CFR.

Sources

• Viewpoint: Sulfur volatility to wane as supply recovers (Argus)
• Argus Sulphur sample report (26 May 2022)
• Port of Vancouver 2022 Statistics Overview
• USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2023 - Sulfur

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Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.