North American sulfur into the first week of July: Tampa still pending, Gulf solids already four-digit

North American formed sulfur entered the first week of July still on the Hormuz-era path that began when Kpler dated the Strait closed to commercial dry bulk on 28 February. CRU's then-pending mid-year update would, one week later, put Middle East monthly sulfur exports down more than 1.0 million tonnes since March and production loss near 2.3 million tonnes. The working public file on 7 July already had enough of that hole to explain why FOB ideas on both North American coasts sat far above 2025 averages. Licensed Argus and Platts weekly assessment grids are not redistributed here.

Tampa molten for the third quarter had not yet printed the $705 per long ton delivered record Argus would report on 13 July at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt. The second-quarter contract at $655 per long ton, already above the 2008 peak, was still the last settled Florida number. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 had framed the 2025 Tampa path from about $116 per long ton early in the year toward $310 in early October, with a first-quarter 2026 neighbourhood near $496 per long ton in the desk's public-anchor file. Mosaic and Nutrien domestic talks remained the US Gulf liquid benchmark. Phosphate affordability was already the downside if Florida runs stayed curtailed.

US Gulf solid-export interest was already the other book. Open-news commentary in this cycle described Gulf granular well above domestic molten, with second-quarter cargoes reaching unusual destinations in North Africa and East Africa as Middle East flows dwindled. Some Gulf refiners lack forming and cannot capture that export idea. They remain tied to Tampa. The split between captive molten and export solid is the North American market, not a single FOB.

Canada is the Pacific swing origin. SMM's first-half review put 2025 Canadian sulfur exports at 4.25 million tonnes, up 40.7 percent year on year, and first-four-month 2026 value at $1.049 billion, annualized near 5.22 million tonnes, with Alberta and British Columbia more than 95 percent of the national account. FOB Vancouver in that review rose from about $500 per tonne in January toward $825-950 by April. The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority 2025 Statistics Overview put sulphur at 3,507,428 tonnes, up 5 percent, China 1.30 million tonnes (down 16 percent), Australia 597,000, Indonesia 371,000, United States 302,000 (up 191 percent). Public reference hubs on this desk, open-news and industry_estimate only, showed FOB Vancouver granular mid about $1,045 per tonne as of 1 June and FOB US Gulf granular mid about $1,125 per tonne as of 1 July, a Vancouver discount of about $80 per tonne on those prints.

Alberta inventory is the buffer those FOB ideas can actually move. Argus, citing AER, put provincial stock at 11.66 million tonnes in July 2025, the lowest since May 2019. BC Insight estimated about 1.5 million tonnes of blocked Canadian sulfur would be remelted across 2025-2030 as additional remelt capacity commissions by end-2026, with oil sands about 3.0 million tonnes of a 4.7 million tonne 2025 elemental output. Remelt, rail, forming, and terminal charges often cited above $150 per tonne are why a $500 January FOB and an $825-950 April FOB are different remelt years. Recovery itself still tracks bitumen and sour-gas throughput. Early-June rainfall that held Lac la Biche-area wildfires near Cenovus, CNRL, and ConocoPhillips in-situ sites was the production-risk note of the previous month.

CIS doors are shut. Roszheldor halted Kazakh sulfur rail to Russian ports from 26 May, about 0.3 million tonnes a month. Decree No. 785 on 25 June extended Russia's industrial sulfur export ban, liquid, granular, and lump, to 31 December 2026. Kazakhstan Order No. 1363 fully suspended sulfur exports from 27 June, with a Russia-rail exception. Those three instruments, not a seasonal fertilizer calendar, set how many non-Gulf tonnes Morocco, Brazil, and India can still tender.

China is not the default bid. SunSirs put May imports at 268,300 tonnes, down 66.41 percent, average about $799 per tonne, MAP toward 40 percent utilization and DAP toward 30 percent. Mid-March customs halted MAP and DAP export declarations through August. A near-total sulfuric acid export halt from early May, after 4.65 million tonnes of acid exports in 2025, took the other sulfur-unit book off the water. Indonesia remains a rigid pull: 76 percent Middle East-dependent in 2025 on CRU's May 22 table, with Nickel Industries starting the ENC sulfuric acid plant in Sulawesi in the final week of June. Southern Africa at 93 percent Middle East dependence does not have that Pacific option as easily.

Freight has been a first-order delivered cost since spring. An open first-half table showed Middle East-China freight from about $26-27 per tonne in February toward $161-170 in June, with CFR China from about $547 toward about $1,075 and FOB Middle East from about $525 toward about $900. SMM's mid-May CIF Indonesia range near $1,100-1,250 per tonne captured Southeast Asia's squeeze. Vancouver-to-Asia freight in public netback commentary has stayed a fraction of that war-risk Gulf-to-China band, which is one reason Canadian formed product cleared into Indonesia even as Chinese phosphate runs were cut.

Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. World supply shocks show up there as stem tightness, remelt draws, and a Gulf-versus-Pacific basis. The 7 July desk is a week before the Tampa record and the CRU stranded-vessel count. It is not a quiet market. It is a market waiting on a Florida contract print, a Gulf loading recovery that has not printed, and a Canadian monthly customs table that will later show June still above 0.5 million tonnes with Indonesia and the United States leading destinations.

Key points

• Last settled Tampa molten still Q2 2026 at $655/lt; Q3 record $705/lt printed six days later (Argus open news, 13 Jul).
• SMM: Canada 2025 sulfur exports 4.25 Mt (+40.7%); 2026 annualized pace near 5.22 Mt; Alberta and BC more than 95% of that account.
• AER via Argus: Alberta inventory 11.66 Mt in July 2025, lowest since May 2019; remelt cycle of ~1.5 Mt over 2025-2030 (BC Insight).
• Russia ban extended through 31 Dec 2026; Kazakhstan export suspension from 27 June; Roszheldor rail halt from 26 May.
• China May imports 268,300 t (-66% YoY); acid exports near halt from early May.
• UNCERTAIN: timing of Gulf dry-bulk restoration above 1 Mt/month; phosphate affordability cap on further Tampa lifts.

30-day watchlist

• Tampa Q3 molten settlement and any open Gulf solid-export fixtures to Africa.
• Next StatCan HS 2503 monthly and VFPA destination updates.
• AER or industry-linked Alberta inventory confirmation for 2026.
• Public freight commentary on Vancouver-Asia versus US Gulf-Brazil lanes.
• Any documented Jorf or Mosaic run-rate change.

Sources

• Tampa 3Q liquid sulphur price hits record $705/lt (Argus)
• H1 2026 sulfur industry chain review (SMM)
• USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 - Sulfur
• Oil sands sulphur (BC Insight / CRU)
• Alberta sulfur inventories fall as exports climb (Argus)

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Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.