Late-July Tampa record and quiet August public prints

Public trade press through mid-July left Tampa molten third-quarter 2026 at a record $705 per long ton delivered and described US Gulf granular export interest well above domestic molten contract levels. Argus open news on 13 July is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt. The settlement was up $50 per long ton from $655 in the second quarter, after that quarter had already surpassed the prior 2008 peak. The same item put US Gulf spot solid exports at $1,100-1,150 per tonne FOB. Licensed Argus and Platts weekly assessment grids are not redistributed here.

Into early August, no new North American government or port print replaced that mid-July price file. USGS Mineral Industry Surveys remain paused during the ScienceBase migration, with the latest posted sulfur monthly series through December 2025. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, published in February, is still the annual production frame: US all-forms output 8.1 million tonnes in 2025e, elemental recovered sulfur about 7.6 million tonnes, apparent consumption 9.1 million tonnes, world output 84 million tonnes, Canada 5.0 million tonnes. Net import reliance was 14 percent of apparent US consumption. Canada provided 53 percent of US recovered elemental sulfur imports in 2021-24.

Alberta inventory remains the last AER-linked stock print on the file, 11.66 million tonnes in July 2025, down 377,000 tonnes year on year and the lowest since May 2019, as reported by Argus citing regulator data. No new provincial sulfur closing stock has been confirmed in open sources for 2026. BC Insight's 23 March oil-sands note still supplies the remelt thesis: about 1.5 million tonnes of blocked Canadian sulfur expected to be remelted across 2025-2030 as additional remelt capacity commissions by end-2026, with oil sands about 3.0 million tonnes, or 63 percent, of a 4.7 million tonne 2025 elemental output. Remelt, rail, forming, and terminal charges often cited above $150 per tonne require the FOB levels that 2025 tightening and the 2026 Hormuz shock produced.

The Port of Vancouver 2025 sulphur total of about 3.51 million tonnes, later confirmed at 3,507,428 tonnes in the VFPA 2023-2025 Statistics Overview, remains the last full-year port anchor. Destination mix in that PDF put China at 1.30 million tonnes, down 16 percent, Australia 597,000 tonnes, Indonesia 371,000 tonnes, and the United States 302,000 tonnes, up 191 percent. Monthly 2026 cargo tables on the public default path remain a bridge, not a replacement annual. Statistics Canada has not printed a new HS 2503 headline that changes the 2026 export pace versus 2025 in the early-August checks.

CRU's mid-July update is still the volume shock underneath the quiet August tape. Middle East sulfur exports down more than 1.0 million tonnes a month since March, production loss near 2.3 million tonnes, more than 0.5 million tonnes loaded and stranded inside Hormuz, onshore Gulf inventory thought to exceed 1.0 million tonnes, regional production at 60-70 percent of pre-conflict rates. Bringing exports back above 1 million tonnes a month may take until August-September because of vessel bottlenecks and restart risk, including a fatal explosion at Qatar's Barzan facility. Russia's industrial sulfur export ban runs through 31 December 2026. Kazakhstan suspended sulfur exports from 27 June after Roszheldor halted Kazakh rail transit to Russian ports on 26 May.

Phosphate plants have already rationed. OCP cut Moroccan capacity by up to 50 percent through the second quarter. Mosaic curtailed at three US and Brazil locations. ChemAnalyst early-July commentary described a relatively stable domestic US spot tone despite high global prices, citing adequate refinery output and inventories. That domestic insulation is the molten book. The $1,100-1,150 FOB solid band is the export book. Some US Gulf producers lack solid-export infrastructure and remain tied to Tampa. If Florida phosphate affordability caps further contract lifts, those captive tonnes have nowhere cheap to go.

SMM's first-half review, already on the desk in July, put Canada on a swing-supplier path: 4.25 million tonnes exported in 2025, up 40.7 percent, first-four-month 2026 value $1.049 billion, annualized near 5.22 million tonnes, Alberta and British Columbia more than 95 percent of the national account. FOB Vancouver in that review rose from about $500 per tonne in January toward $825-950 by April. Public reference hubs on this desk, open-news and industry_estimate only, show FOB Vancouver granular mid about $1,045 per tonne as of 1 June 2026 and FOB US Gulf granular mid about $1,125 per tonne as of 1 July 2026, a Vancouver discount of about $80 per tonne on those prints.

China's seaborne sulfur bid has stepped back even as Canadian tonnes keep moving. SunSirs put May Chinese imports at 268,300 tonnes, down 66.41 percent year on year, average price about $799 per tonne, MAP utilization toward 40 percent and DAP toward 30 percent. SMM later put January-June at about 2.26 million tonnes, down 57.7 percent. China's near-total sulfuric acid export halt from early May, after 4.65 million tonnes of acid exports in 2025, removed the other sulfur-unit book from the water. Nickel Industries' late-June ENC acid-plant startup in Sulawesi is a rigid HPAL bid that does not wait on a Florida calendar.

Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. World supply shocks show up there as stem tightness, remelt draws, and a Gulf-versus-Pacific basis. Early August is a documentation pause, not a market pause. Tampa at $705 per long ton, Gulf solids above $1,100 FOB, Canada on a 5 million-tonne-plus annualized export path, and Hormuz dry bulk still impaired are the working file until a new USGS monthly, a new StatCan table, or a Gulf loading print above 1 million tonnes a month changes it.

Key points

• Last material open-news price print in this cycle: Argus Tampa Q3 molten $705/lt (13 Jul 2026); US Gulf spot granular export band cited in that same open item.
• USGS MIS sulfur posting paused; MCS 2026 annual frame unchanged (US 2025e production 8.1 Mt all forms).
• Alberta inventory public series still AER-linked with observation cutoffs; no new AER sulfur print this week.
• Vancouver export desk: 2025 VFPA ~3.51 Mt sulfur; monthly tables remain reported/bridge only on the public default path.
• UNCERTAIN: whether US Gulf solid-export diversion fades if Middle East transit normalizes; whether Florida phosphate affordability caps further Tampa contract lifts.

30-day watchlist

• Next open USGS/MIS or equivalent US production print after ScienceBase migration.
• VFPA monthly/destination updates when the port statistics pages respond.
• Any open StatCan HS 2503 monthly that changes the 2026 export pace vs 2025.
• Public freight commentary on Vancouver-Asia vs US Gulf-Brazil lanes for netback context.

Sources

• Tampa 3Q liquid sulphur price hits record $705/lt (Argus open news)
• USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 - Sulfur
• Port of Vancouver statistics
• Sulfur Wire intel log 2026-08-02 (AER/StatCan/USGS/VFPA open checks)

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Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.