Soft Tampa year-close and Canadian export surplus

Year-end 2023 left sulfur prices subdued relative to 2022 extremes. Argus assessed Vancouver sulfur at $72 per tonne FOB midpoint on 14 December, down 25 percent since the start of the fourth quarter as Chinese demand waned and rising freight rates trimmed FOB netbacks. USGS placed Tampa fourth-quarter 2023 at $102 per long ton after a mid-July trough of $55, an open near $90, and a mid-January spike to $130. Open market notes into early 2024 described US Gulf first-quarter 2024 liquid contracts expected to settle in the mid-$60s to low-$70s per long ton delivered, tracking that soft Vancouver and US Gulf spot. USGS later recorded Tampa opening 2024 at $69. The December viewpoint held.

Vancouver's 3,103,912 tonnes of sulphur, up 11 percent, confirmed structural volume growth even as prices stayed soft. The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority put overall 2023 trade at 150.4 million metric tonnes, up 6 percent, with sulfur among record dry-bulk commodities. The volume ladder from 2.29 million tonnes in 2021 to 2.79 million in 2022 to 3.10 million in 2023 became undeniable. Canadian surplus continued to clear through dual channels: molten rail to US consumers and solid Pacific export. USGS MCS 2024 listed Canada at 77 percent of US elemental sulfur imports for 2019-22. BC Insight later put about 1.3 million tonnes molten south and about 2.8 million tonnes via Vancouver inside a 4.1 million tonne 2023 Canadian export year, production near 4.5 million, domestic use 0.6 million, modest stock draw.

Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. AER via Argus put January-October Alberta production at 3.78 million tonnes, up 11 percent, oil-sands bitumen and heavy sour crude lifting recovery toward record highs. Early-2023 remelt to pace exports had already given way to a high-cost remelt squeeze at $72 FOB. Export-process costs often cited above $150 per tonne do not clear at that Pacific print. South Cheecham had been operating since the beginning of the third quarter, about 4,400 tonnes a day of forming near Fort McMurray. Forming of current recovery continued. Remelt of remote block slowed. Alberta inventories remained large enough that remelt stayed a price-contingent option rather than a continuous must-run. Derived later mid-2024 stock near 12 million tonnes, from Argus's July 2025 11.66 million tonne print, is the pad this winter helped preserve.

China's 2023 sulfur imports recovered 16 percent to 8.8 million tonnes, IndexBox, value about $1.1 billion, after a 2022 import-value peak near $2.3 billion. Canada, Korea, and the UAE at about 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes each were the top three origins, together about 39 percent. Waning Chinese demand into December is the winter pause inside a recovery year, not a 2022-style phosphate-export curb. January 2023 customs inspections, Argus, had already restrained intensity versus the first-half 2022 surge. IFA's MAP and DAP at 64.3 million tonnes, still below 2020, is the phosphate volume those inspections allowed. Fourth-quarter CIF stayed cheap. Volume had already recovered.

Indonesian HPAL imported about 2.7 million tonnes of sulfur and about 1.1 million tonnes of acid. Global nickel-related sulfur use reached 3.5 million tonnes, from 1.7 million in 2020. Battery-metal demand featured more in forward commentary than in 2023 Vancouver destination mix, which remained China-led. That metals bid is the floor under a surplus, not yet the organizer of the stem. Argus later put 2024 Indonesian HPAL acid demand at 5.17 million tonnes. December 2023 is the 3.5 million tonne nickel-sulfur year closing, not the 2025 16 million tonne acid path.

Kazakhstan's crushed-lump programme after the Kashagan fine, and Saudi draws of about 0.15 million tonnes a quarter, continued through year-end for storage and regulatory reasons. Tengiz output was 2.4 million tonnes in 2023. Those CIS and Gulf tonnes hit world CIF through Ust-Luga and Ras Tanura while Canadian remelt paused. CRU's three-way inventory contrast is the year-end file. Red Sea security concerns into late 2023 were already lengthening some Middle East-to-Asia fertilizer and dry-bulk voyages via the Cape of Good Hope. Canadian Pacific stems do not use Suez. They still pay Pacific dry-bulk. Higher ocean rates trimmed FOB netbacks, Argus said, which is why $72 left less for inland costs.

US 2023 production about unchanged at 8.6 million tonnes, unit value about $100 per tonne after $150 in 2022, Gulf Coast nine-month output up 3 percent, is the Atlantic surplus under Tampa's $102 fourth quarter. World production about 85.8 million tonnes, China about 19.4 million, Canada about 4.98 million, is the USGS planet. Licensed weekly assessment grids are not restated here. The $72 Vancouver midpoint is open Argus news. The $102 Tampa print is USGS.

Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. World surplus shows up there as a 3.10 million tonne harbour year at $72 FOB. For open-data trackers, the fourth quarter is when price quiet and volume growth together set a trap for anyone reading only FOB: logistics capacity was accumulating even as contracts looked dull. That capacity would be called in 2025-26. UNCERTAIN: end-2023 Alberta AER stock versus the about 12 million tonne mid-2024 derived level later implied by Argus. Directionally remelt had already become discretionary. Pour-to-block was the winter default for tonnes that could not clear. TFI's 2023 industry survey still named geopolitics and regulation as leading fertilizer challenges, the memory of 2022 war and Chinese-policy shocks rather than a new Strait closure. Soft contracts and a record bulk harbour can coexist. That is the year-end Canadian file.

Key points

• BC Insight early 2024 / Argus: Tampa Q1 2024 expected mid-$60s to low-$70s; USGS later $69/lt open.
• Vancouver 2023 sulphur 3.10 Mt cemented multi-year volume expansion.
• Canada remained a structural exporter of both molten and solid sulfur.
• Inventory draw still required supportive FOB above export-chain costs.
• UNCERTAIN: precise end-2023 Alberta inventory from AER public extracts.

30-day watchlist

• USGS confirmation of the 2024 Tampa open versus Argus's mid-$60s to low-$70s band.
• January Vancouver loadings versus the 3.10 Mt 2023 base.
• Any remelt commentary as $72 FOB carries into the new year.
• Chinese January import tonnes versus the 8.8 Mt 2023 recovery year.

Sources

• Viewpoint: Global softness to pressure Northam sulfur (Argus)
• Price Trends (BC Insight / CRU, Jan 2024)
• Canada's sulphur exports (BC Insight / CRU)
• Port of Vancouver 2023 cargo release
• USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024 - Sulfur

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Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.