Tampa at $69/lt and a quiet start to 2024

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 recorded Tampa contract sulfur beginning 2024 at $69 per long ton, rising to $81 per long ton in early March, then easing to $76 per long ton by early July, with the fourth quarter later at $116 per long ton. The early-year print matched the soft post-2022 regime. It also matched USGS's telling of early-2021 Tampa levels, even though the global logistics map had changed: South Cheecham forming had started in the third quarter of 2023, Indonesia's sulfur imports were already near 2.7 million tonnes for 2023, and Kazakhstan had begun a crushed-lump stock-draw programme. Quiet absolute prices coexisted with a Canadian Pacific stem that was heading toward another growth year. Port of Vancouver sulphur later printed 3,348,398 tonnes in 2024, up 7.9 percent from 3,103,912 tonnes in 2023, in the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority 2023-2025 Statistics Overview.

US production and shipments in 2024 were each estimated 5 percent below 2023 in USGS MCS 2025. MCS 2026 later put US all-forms output at 8.32 million tonnes in 2024, down from 8.65 million in 2023, with apparent consumption 9.36 million tonnes. Average US elemental sulfur unit value was $46.42 per tonne, after $58.9 in 2023 and $177.8 in 2022. First-quarter 2024 is the last unambiguously soft quarter on that tape. A slightly tighter domestic US balance sat underneath a quiet Tampa contract. It did not restore 2022 scarcity psychology. Phosphate buyers that had been burned by the April 2022 $481 per long ton peak entered 2024 with leaner inventories and more patience.

Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. Argus separately reported 2024 Vancouver solid exports up 7 percent to 3.3 million tonnes, supported by de-blocking and prilling initiatives, plus about 900,000 tonnes of Canadian liquid rail into the United States. USGS MCS 2024 import-source statistics for 2019-22 still listed Canada at 77 percent of US elemental sulfur imports. MCS 2026 later put Canada's share at 53 percent for 2021-24. Molten rail is that share's physical counterpart. Forming west and loading dry bulk is the other door. First-quarter 2024 had both doors open without a tariff file and without a Hormuz closure.

South Cheecham's first full winter after the early-third-quarter 2023 start is the inland forming print. Keyera reported sulphur handling, forming, and storage facilities commenced operations at the beginning of the third quarter of 2023, a joint venture with Enbridge, gross project cost about $285 million. The terminal includes roughly 4,400 tonnes a day of forming capacity near Fort McMurray. Argus later said the priller was operational after January-May 2024 startup issues. First-quarter 2024 is therefore the commissioning hangover, not the full utilization year. Forming capacity, not Claus nameplate, set whether oil-sands recovery became cargo. Heartland Sulphur's Edmonton-area terminal, commissioned around 2021 with about 4,500 tonnes a day of forming, remained the other node converting crushed and blocked sulfur into granules and molten rail.

China's 2023 sulfur imports had recovered 16 percent to 8.8 million tonnes after three years of decline, IndexBox reported, though import value fell to about $1.1 billion on lower prices. Canada supplied about 1.2 million tonnes into that Chinese book, alongside South Korea and the UAE at about 1.1 million tonnes each. First-quarter 2024 is selling into that recovered Chinese bid at still-soft CIF. Mysteel later put 2024 Chinese imports at 9.952 million tonnes, up 12.7 percent, average about $116.3 per tonne, down 8.4 percent. Canada was second origin at 1.66 million tonnes, behind the UAE at 1.70 million. The first quarter does not yet have that annual. It has a Tampa open at $69 and a Vancouver stem that had already printed 3.10 million tonnes in 2023.

Indonesian HPAL is the metals bid under a fertilizer-led year. S&P Global Energy later reported Indonesia imported about 2.7 million tonnes of sulfur in 2023, roughly three times the 2020 level, plus about 1 million tonnes of sulfuric acid. BC Insight estimated global sulfur consumption for nickel at 3.5 million tonnes in 2023, from 1.7 million in 2020. Argus later put Indonesian HPAL acid demand near 5.17 million tonnes in 2024. First-quarter 2024 is when that metals book is already large enough to compete with phosphate for seaborne sulfur even while Tampa sits at $69. It is not yet the 16 million tonne Indonesian acid path CRU would cite for 2025.

World sulfur production in MCS 2025 was estimated near 85 million tonnes for 2024, roughly flat with 2023's 85.8 million. MCS 2026 later revised 2024 world output to about 83.9 million tonnes and Canada to about 5.06 million tonnes, from MCS 2025's about 5.0 million. A flat Claus planet with a growing Vancouver stem is a surplus that still clears. CRU's later inventory essay said Canada remelt accelerates when Vancouver FOB clears high logistics costs, while Kazakh and Saudi stock draws continued through the lower-price surplus for regulatory and storage-capacity reasons. Argus later put the January-July 2024 Vancouver FOB average at $78 per tonne. That does not clear the export-process cost hurdle often cited above $150 per tonne the way 2025's $238 would. Remelt stayed selective. Current recovery and forming of new oil-sands tonnes still loaded.

Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. World surplus shows up there as a busy harbour at a quiet FOB, not as idle loaders. First-quarter 2024 reprised soft Tampa prints at $69 per long ton. Early March's rise to $81 hinted that the floor was not permanent. Open researchers should treat this quarter as the last unambiguously soft window before the second-half firming to $116 per long ton and the much stronger 2025 Vancouver FOB averages. Basis between Tampa molten and Vancouver solid remained a freight-and-form problem rather than a single North American price. Licensed weekly assessment grids are not restated here.

UNCERTAIN: whether early-2024 Vancouver FOB midpoints already discounted later second-half firmness. The $78 January-July average Argus later reported is a half-year, not a first-quarter-only print. The 3.35 million tonne harbour year is the volume that first-quarter loaders were already rehearsing. USGS Tampa at $69 opening, $81 in early March, is the Florida contract those tonnes were priced against. Canadian solid export growth during a soft price year again showed term offtake and logistics clearing power. That capacity would be called in 2025 when remelt economics flipped, and again in 2026 when Hormuz closed the Middle East door.

Key points

• USGS MCS 2025: Tampa began 2024 at $69/lt; early March $81/lt.
• Vancouver 2024 sulphur later confirmed 3.35 Mt (+8% YoY).
• US 2024 production/shipments estimated −5% YoY (USGS).
• Volume growth with soft prices = logistics and term offtake still clearing.
• UNCERTAIN: Q1 2024 Vancouver spot vs Tampa molten basis in open sources.

30-day watchlist

• USGS or trade-press confirmation of the March $81/lt Tampa step holding into April.
• South Cheecham utilization after winter startup issues.
• Chinese first-quarter import run-rate versus 2023's 8.8 Mt recovery year.
• Any open Vancouver monthly loading print versus the 3.10 Mt 2023 base.

Sources

• USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 - Sulfur
• Port of Vancouver moves record trade in 2024
• Port of Vancouver 2025 Statistics Overview

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Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.