Sulfur Wire North American sulfur intelligence

Outlook · 2026-09-28

Shandong sulfur steadies at 7,719 yuan as national benchmark lifts to 7,752 while Vancouver FOB holds the eleven-hundred-dollar band

North America map of sulfur hubs
North American recovered-sulfur geography: Alberta inventory, Vancouver stem, US Gulf and Tampa. Sulfur Wire · Original
Formed sulfur at a Pacific bulk terminal, the visual of Alberta tonnes waiting on the Vancouver stem.
Formed sulfur at a Pacific bulk terminal, the visual of Alberta tonnes waiting on the Vancouver stem.
Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints Mt 2022 12 2023 12 2024 12 2025 11 2026 11 AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)
Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)

The North American sulfur desk entered the week of 28 September with Pacific FOB still anchored in four-digit open trade press while Chinese domestic markets tried to stabilize after a mid-month correction. BC Insight's 18 and 19 September price coverage left North American granular FOB steady at 1,100 to 1,200 dollars per tonne on confirmed deal language, with Middle East spot quoted softer near 865 to 900 dollars per tonne FOB on the 18 September trends note and Hormuz backlog estimates still in the hundreds of thousands of tonnes even after a United States–Iran ceasefire window allowed roughly 1.07 million metric tonnes on 22 vessels to depart pre-sold cargoes. Shengyishe's national sulfur benchmark, which had printed 7,669 yuan per metric tonne flat on 21 September, lifted to 7,709 yuan on 22 September, 7,752.33 yuan on 23 and 24 September, then paused into the weekend while a separate Shandong rawmex line held 7,719 yuan for four consecutive sessions through 27 September. That split between coastal plant boards and the national index is the corridor read for Alberta: Vancouver stems can keep eleven-hundred-dollar FOB ideas while yuan benchmarks oscillate and port inventories sit near 940,000 tonnes.

Chinese spot markets spent the fourth week of September in a shallow rebound inside a wider September drawdown. Month to date the national benchmark was down 7.15 percent versus the 1 September opening level of 8,349 yuan per tonne as of the 24 September flat print at 7,752.33 yuan, even after three consecutive daily lifts from the 21 September low. Shengyishe's 24 September trend release reclassified the market as counter-rally with a bearish bias in platform terminology, down from 23 September's strong rebound tag, while overall direction remained oscillation. Five-day average spreads eased to positive 42.00 yuan from positive 58.66 yuan on 23 September, ten-day spreads improved to negative 8.17 yuan, and twenty-day spreads widened to negative 347.90 yuan, language the platform associates with a fading bounce inside a choppy range rather than a cleared import parity window. Shandong Lihuayi lifted industrial solid and liquid sulfur offers by 100 yuan to 7,400 yuan per tonne on 23 September plant wires, reversing part of a 21 September cut and tracking closer to the national line while remaining more than 350 yuan below the 7,752.33 yuan index. For Vancouver netbacks the message is familiar: buyers are not paying full landed four-digit import math on every session, but Pacific loadings are not priced off Gulf postings alone.

Coastal inventory wires reinforce that caution. Open port statistics carried on 23 September put monitored Chinese elemental sulfur stocks at 940,200 metric tonnes, up slightly from 938,000 tonnes on 21 September data in the prior PriceSeek relay. Fangcheng led at 380,000 tonnes, Zhanjiang at 200,000 tonnes, Zhenjiang at 223,000 tonnes, Dafeng at 86,000 tonnes, Beihai at 23,000 tonnes, and Nanjing at 10,000 tonnes, with Shengyishe's weekend rawmex feed still showing the 23 September timestamp through 27 September. The stale print lands on a fourth flat Shandong board session at 7,719 yuan, highlighting ample stocks against a national line that had recovered more than 80 yuan from the 21 September print. SMM's 24 September sulphuric acid weekly put China's copper smelting acid index at 1,247.5 yuan per metric tonne, down 103.5 yuan or 7.7 percent week on week, while sulfur EXW Shandong averaged 7,508.5 yuan, up 55 yuan week on week in the same survey. Acid weakness and elemental firmness in Shandong continue to diverge, consistent with BC Insight's framing that phosphate curtailments and hand-to-mouth buying outweigh Hormuz delays in spot pricing even when backlog tonnage is large on paper.

Atlantic phosphate economics remain the political and contract shock absorber on the US desk. Representative Vern Buchanan released a 21 September letter asking for federal steps on sulfur affordability after production curtailments and more than 200 fertilizer-sector job losses, citing Tampa sulfur from a ten-year average near 172 dollars per long ton to roughly 1,100 to 1,200 dollars per long ton since May. Open reporting still puts third-quarter 2026 Tampa molten sulfur contracts at a record 705 dollars per long ton delivered, the last material open-news Tampa settlement cited by Argus on 13 July 2026, with Mosaic described running plants at roughly 50 percent rates in Florida and Louisiana in Fertilizer Daily coverage on 18 September. Middle East monthly postings at 880 dollars per tonne FOB still sit far below landed parity once Hormuz-route insurance surcharges near 200 dollars per tonne are included, which is why BC Insight's 19 September update described monthly Middle East exports falling below 1.0 million tonnes per month since March.

Canada's export lane stayed visible in August customs even as Chinese import totals cooled. SMM published 20 September that China imported 272,323 metric tonnes of elemental sulfur in August, down 65.03 percent year on year, with Canada listed among top origins. Open accounts still frame Canada as a swing supplier after Hormuz disruption, with 2025 exports at 4.25 million tonnes and the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority 2025 Statistics Overview confirming sulphur through the port at 3,507,428 metric tonnes, up 5 percent year on year. Elemental sulfur under heading 2503 remained off Ottawa's September retaliation lists, so Alberta forming plants still watch stem economics more than tariff headlines. SMM's new CFR China sulfur assessment from 25 September on 8,000 metric tonne minimum lots adds a second open China import marker; the first Friday print after launch was a desk watch item into 28 September.

Alberta inventory still rests on the verified_public government print from late August. The Alberta Energy Regulator's current ST3 file, run date 27 August 2026, puts province-wide closing inventory at 11,109,610.9 tonnes for July 2026, about 11.11 million tonnes in desk rounding, with July production at 378,614.8 tonnes and July removals at 183,631.4 tonnes. No August 2026 ST3 close was on the open PDF at desk time, so July remains the inventory anchor while recovery tracks bitumen throughput more than the sulfur bid.

Freight netbacks keep Pacific stems bid on delivered math, not Gulf postings alone. Public reference hubs on the desk, open-news and industry_estimate anchors only, show FOB Vancouver granular in a 1,100 to 1,200 dollars per tonne band as of 18 September 2026 per BC Insight's confirmed Southern Africa sale narrative, unchanged in BC Insight's 19 September North American steady call, while FOB US Gulf granular mid about 1,125 dollars per tonne as of 1 July 2026 remains the last structured Gulf anchor in the platform series. SunSirs' mid-September import reviews still put China granular CFR at 1,000 to 1,050 dollars per tonne at the top of a wide 525 to 1,050 dollars per tonne import window, with theoretical CFR southern China landed costs above 1,070 dollars per tonne when Kuwait August FOB at 865 dollars plus freight and insurance are stacked in open accounts. SMM's 18 September sulphuric acid weekly review put CFR India near 1,050 dollars per tonne after a twenty-five dollar cut from 1,075 dollars and CIF Indonesia near 1,005 dollars per tonne, down twenty dollars week on week. USGS Mineral Industry Surveys remain paused during the ScienceBase migration, so monthly US production prints are still December 2025 at latest posted.

BC Insight's 18 September acid trade insight said China's unofficial sulphuric acid export halt through year-end 2026 removes an estimated 2.8 million metric tonnes from the traded acid pool in 2026. Shengyishe's week 38 board showed sulfur up 0.13 percent week on week to 7,719 yuan with sulfuric acid flat at 1,737.50 yuan. Hormuz backlog estimates still run between 400,000 and 600,000 tonnes on waiting vessels even after the 1.07 million tonne pre-sold departure wave BC Insight described on 19 September.

The corridor read into 28 September is therefore familiar rather than resolved. Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem at FOB ideas BC Insight keeps at 1,100 to 1,200 dollars per tonne. World supply shocks show up there as stem tightness and Gulf-versus-Pacific basis even as Chinese domestic benchmarks lift from 7,669 yuan toward 7,752 yuan and Shandong boards steady at 7,719 yuan into the weekend. AER July 2026 closing stock at 11.11 million tonnes is the verified inventory anchor. Tampa at 705 dollars per long ton and phosphate idling above 1,000 dollar sulfur costs are the Atlantic prints, now echoed in congressional pressure on sulfur affordability. Canada on a multi-year export upswing with August customs still listing Canadian origins in China's shrinking import book is the Pacific print.

Key points

  • Shengyishe national benchmark: 7,669 yuan/t (21 Sep flat) → 7,709 (22 Sep) → 7,752.33 (23–24 Sep); MTD −7.15% vs 1 Sep open 8,349 yuan/t; 24 Sep trend counter-rally (bearish bias).
  • Shandong rawmex/board: 7,719 yuan/t flat 24–27 Sep (four sessions); week 38 board +0.13% w/w; separate series from national 基准价.
  • China port sulfur stocks: 940,200 t (23 Sep wire); Fangcheng 380,000 t, Zhenjiang 223,000 t; weekend feed stale on 23 Sep timestamp.
  • BC Insight 18–19 Sep: Vancouver/NA FOB steady $1,100–1,200/t; ME spot $865–900/t FOB (18 Sep); Hormuz ~1.07 Mt departed on 22 vessels post-ceasefire window; ~380 kt backlog remained (19 Sep).
  • Buchanan 21 Sep letter: Tampa ~$1,100–1,200/lt vs ~$172/lt ten-year average framing; DPA and logistics tools cited.
  • SMM 24 Sep acid weekly: smelter acid index 1,247.5 yuan/t (−7.7% w/w); Shandong sulfur EXW avg 7,508.5 yuan/t (+0.74% w/w).
  • SMM 20 Sep: China Aug sulfur imports 272,323 t (−65% y/y); Canada among listed origins.
  • AER ST3 Jul 2026: Alberta closing inventory 11,109,610.9 t (~11.11 Mt); Jul production 378,614.8 t; Jul removals 183,631.4 t (verified_public, run date 27 Aug 2026).
  • Last open-news Tampa Q3 molten print: $705/lt delivered (Argus, 13 Jul 2026). ME Sep contract reference 880/t FOB (SunSirs).
  • UNCERTAIN: first SMM CFR China Friday print after 25 Sep launch; whether national 基准价 resumes after weekend gap; AER ST3 August close when PDF updates.

30-day watchlist

  • Shengyishe national benchmark versus Shandong rawmex and Lihuayi plant offers after the 24 Sep flat print.
  • BC Insight Vancouver FOB band and Hormuz backlog revisions versus India CFR near $1,050/t in SMM weekly reviews.
  • SMM CFR China sulfur assessment: first and second Friday publications at noon Beijing time.
  • AER ST3 August closing inventory when the current PDF updates beyond July 2026.
  • VFPA monthly updates and StatCan HS 2503 tables that change 2026 export pace versus 2025.
  • Congressional or executive follow-through on Buchanan sulfur affordability letter versus Mosaic run rates.
  • Covered-list and retaliation calendar text for any HS 2503 listing.

Sources

Public reference summary. Weekly PRA assessments require a commercial license. Not investment advice.

Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints Mt 2022 12 2023 12 2024 12 2025 11 2026 11 AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)
Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)

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2026-09-21Outlook stream