Sulfur Wire North American sulfur intelligence

Outlook · 2026-10-05

Shengyishe holds 7,702 yuan through National Day holiday as AER August stock prints 11.04 Mt

Formed sulfur piled at a Pacific bulk terminal under a dark sky
Formed sulfur at a Pacific bulk terminal, the visual of Alberta tonnes waiting on the Vancouver stem. Sulfur Wire · Original
Formed sulfur at a Pacific bulk terminal, the visual of Alberta tonnes waiting on the Vancouver stem.
Formed sulfur at a Pacific bulk terminal, the visual of Alberta tonnes waiting on the Vancouver stem.

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The North American sulfur desk entered the week of 5 October with Chinese National Day holiday silence on most daily boards and with a fresher Alberta government inventory print. Shengyishe's open rawmex screen closed 4 October at 7,702.33 yuan per metric tonne, unchanged on the day with a 16:00 timestamp, matching the Shandong industrial solid reference on the same stamp and marking a second consecutive flat holiday session at that nominal level. The print sits below the late-September national line that had lifted to 7,752.33 yuan on 23 and 24 September, and below the 29 September Shandong rawmex high at 7,752.33 yuan, after a 30 September close at 7,685.67 yuan and a 1 October rebound of 0.22 percent into the holiday hold. Oilchem's 1 October holiday desk still framed post-Golden-Week trade as weak sideways, with Middle East risk intact, Asian spot offers easing, and autumn fertilizer demand winding down before winter stock builds, while no 4 October sulfur daily was posted on that open hub by desk time.

Coastal inventory wires remain stale into the holiday. Shengyishe's open feed on 4 October still carried the 23 September port inventory wire at 940,200 metric tonnes of monitored Chinese coastal elemental sulfur, unchanged from prior desk reads, with Fangcheng at 380,000 tonnes, Zhanjiang at 200,000 tonnes, Zhenjiang at 223,000 tonnes, Dafeng at 86,000 tonnes, Beihai at 23,000 tonnes, and Nanjing at 10,000 tonnes. The same feed still showed the 29 September Shandong Lihua Yitan plant wire at 7,750 yuan per tonne for solid and liquid grades, about 48 yuan above the 4 October rawmex close. For Vancouver netbacks the holiday message is quiet rather than cleared: domestic boards are not printing a fresh import-parity window, and port stocks have not been revised on the open feed since 23 September.

Public reference hub context, open-news and industry_estimate anchors only, still points to FOB Vancouver granular in a 1,100 to 1,200 dollars per tonne band as of 18 September 2026 per BC Insight's confirmed Southern Africa sale narrative, unchanged in BC Insight's 19 September North American steady call. No newer open Vancouver FOB band was on the public BC Insight trends pages at desk time. FOB US Gulf granular mid about 1,125 dollars per tonne as of 1 July 2026 remains the last structured Gulf anchor in the platform series. Middle East September contract reference at 880 dollars per tonne FOB (SunSirs) still sits below Pacific ideas on a flat FOB comparison. The last material open-news Tampa molten settlement remains third-quarter 2026 at 705 dollars per long ton delivered, cited in Argus open coverage on 13 July 2026. USGS Mineral Industry Surveys remain paused during the ScienceBase migration, so monthly US production prints are still December 2025 at latest posted.

Alberta inventory has a verified_public update. The Alberta Energy Regulator's current ST3 file, run date 28 September 2026, puts province-wide closing inventory at 11,042,851.4 tonnes for August 2026, about 11.04 million tonnes in desk rounding, down from the July close of 11,109,610.9 tonnes. August production printed 328,937.3 tonnes and August removals from Alberta printed 178,425.2 tonnes, with year-to-date production through August at 2,759,234.3 tonnes and year-to-date removals at 1,305,435.1 tonnes. The August draw of roughly 67,000 tonnes keeps the stockpile on a slow remelt and removal path rather than a restock. No September 2026 ST3 close was on the open PDF at desk time.

Canada's export lane is still anchored on 2025 verified port totals and mid-2026 customs snapshots rather than a fresh Vancouver monthly for September 2026. The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority 2025 Statistics Overview keeps sulphur through the port at 3,507,428 metric tonnes, up 5 percent year on year. Platform export history still shows the newest reported Vancouver month as September 2025 at about 386,000 tonnes on an industry_estimate run-rate, with August 2025 verified at 304,675 tonnes. Open SMM customs commentary in September put China August elemental sulfur imports at 272,323 tonnes, down 65.03 percent year on year, with Canada listed among top origins, and a separate July Canada export print near 444,100 tonnes across destination lanes. Elemental sulfur under heading 2503 remained off Ottawa's September retaliation lists in prior open coverage, so Alberta forming plants still watch stem economics more than tariff headlines.

Freight netbacks keep Pacific stems bid on delivered math, not Gulf postings alone. Platform netbacks using the public-reference Vancouver mid near 1,150 dollars per tonne imply about 1,178 dollars CFR China after an about 28 dollars per tonne Vancouver-China freight mid, versus an implied Middle East-China stack near 970 dollars when September Middle East FOB near 880 dollars is combined with a stress-period freight mid near 90 dollars. Those freight midpoints are platform_estimate and industry_estimate lanes as of 1 July 2026, not new fixture prints. SunSirs mid-September import reviews still put China granular CFR in a 1,000 to 1,050 dollars per tonne band at the top of a wide import window. The holiday pause does not rewrite that Pacific versus Middle East delivered gap; it only delays the next open China board test until after the 8 October resume window cited in open holiday notices.

The corridor read into 5 October is therefore a holiday hold on Chinese boards against a fresh Alberta inventory draw. Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem at FOB ideas BC Insight last left at 1,100 to 1,200 dollars per tonne. Shengyishe at 7,702.33 yuan flat through early October, a stale 940,200 tonne coastal stock wire, and Oilchem's weak post-holiday framing are the China prints. AER August 2026 closing stock at 11.04 million tonnes is the verified inventory anchor. Tampa at 705 dollars per long ton and Gulf granular near 1,125 dollars remain the last structured Atlantic open anchors. Canada on a multi-year export upswing with 2025 Vancouver throughput at 3.51 million tonnes is the Pacific print.

Key points

  • Shengyishe rawmex: 7,702.33 yuan/t flat on 2 to 4 Oct (0.00% d); 1 Oct close 7,702.33 (+0.22% d) after 30 Sep 7,685.67; late-Sep national high 7,752.33 on 23 to 24 Sep.
  • Shandong Lihua Yitan plant wire: 7,750 yuan/t solid and liquid on 29 Sep (+50 yuan); still carried on 4 Oct open feed.
  • China port sulfur stocks: 940,200 t (23 Sep wire) still displayed on 4 Oct open feed; Fangcheng 380,000 t, Zhenjiang 223,000 t.
  • Oilchem 1 Oct holiday desk: post-Golden-Week bias weak sideways; no 4 Oct sulfur daily posted by desk time.
  • BC Insight 18 to 19 Sep (last open NA FOB band): Vancouver/NA FOB steady 1,100 to 1,200 dollars/t; no fresher open Vancouver band at desk time.
  • AER ST3 Aug 2026 (run date 28 Sep 2026): Alberta closing inventory 11,042,851.4 t (~11.04 Mt); Aug production 328,937.3 t; Aug removals 178,425.2 t; Jul close was 11,109,610.9 t (verified_public).
  • VFPA 2025 sulphur throughput: 3,507,428 t (+5% y/y). Newest platform Vancouver month: Sep 2025 ~386 kt (industry_estimate); Aug 2025 304,675 t (verified_public).
  • SMM Sep open customs note: China Aug sulfur imports 272,323 t (-65% y/y); Canada among listed origins. July Canada export snapshot near 444,100 t in prior desk open coverage.
  • Freight/netback context (platform as of 1 Jul 2026 lanes; FOB anchors as of public_reference): Vancouver mid ~1,150 plus ~28 freight → ~1,178 implied CFR China; ME FOB ~880 plus ~90 freight → ~970 implied CFR China.
  • Last open-news Tampa Q3 molten print: 705 dollars/lt delivered (Argus open news, 13 Jul 2026). Gulf granular mid ~1,125 dollars/t (1 Jul 2026 open-news anchor). ME Sep contract reference 880 dollars/t FOB (SunSirs).
  • UNCERTAIN: first post-holiday Shengyishe and Oilchem dailies after 8 Oct resume; AER ST3 September close when PDF updates; next open Vancouver FOB sale print that moves the 1,100 to 1,200 band; VFPA or StatCan HS 2503 tables for 2026 monthly export pace.

30-day watchlist

  • Shengyishe rawmex and Shandong plant offers after the National Day holiday resume window.
  • Fresh coastal port inventory wire replacing the 23 September 940,200 t stamp.
  • BC Insight or other open-trade-press Vancouver FOB band revisions versus India and Indonesia CFR ideas in weekly reviews.
  • AER ST3 September closing inventory when the current PDF updates beyond August 2026.
  • VFPA monthly updates and StatCan HS 2503 tables that change 2026 export pace versus 2025's 3.51 Mt Vancouver print.
  • Open Tampa or US Gulf granular prints that refresh the July contract and spot anchors.
  • Covered-list and retaliation calendar text for any HS 2503 listing.

Sources

Public reference summary for recovered sulfur logistics and open trade-press context. Not investment advice. Licensed Argus/Platts weekly assessment numbers are not reproduced here.

Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints Mt 2022 12 2023 12 2024 12 2025 11 2026 11 AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)
Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)

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2026-09-28Outlook stream