Sulfur Wire North American sulfur intelligence

Outlook · 2026-10-26

China sulfur 基准 breaks to 5,614 yuan as coastal stocks rebuild to 1.12 Mt with Vancouver FOB still at 835 dollars

North America map of sulfur hubs
North American recovered-sulfur geography: Alberta inventory, Vancouver stem, US Gulf and Tampa. Sulfur Wire · Original
Formed sulfur at a Pacific bulk terminal, the visual of Alberta tonnes waiting on the Vancouver stem.
Formed sulfur at a Pacific bulk terminal, the visual of Alberta tonnes waiting on the Vancouver stem.

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The North American sulfur desk entered the week of 26 October with the Chinese domestic tape breaking lower after a four-day hold at a three-month low, coastal port cover rebuilding above 1.12 million tonnes, and unchanged open-dollar Pacific anchors that still frame Vancouver granular FOB near 835 dollars per metric tonne. Shengyishe's 100ppi rawmex screen at 16:22 on 26 October cut the national sulfur 基准价 to 5,614.25 yuan per tonne, down 100 yuan or 1.75 percent from the 5,714.25 yuan close that had held from 22 through 25 October, with the page marking that print as a fresh three-month trough against a three-month high of 9,535.67 yuan and a three-month average of 8,160.06 yuan. Tonghuashun iFind's open sulfur table had not posted a distinct 26 October spot row by desk time and still embedded 5,714.25 yuan in the page shell, so the fresher domestic anchor is the 100ppi 基准 move. ChemPriceHub's 15 October international roundup remains the latest structured Vancouver FOB print in the platform series at 830 to 840 dollars per tonne with transactions inside the band, mid 835 dollars, down 50 dollars on the week in that open note. FOB US Gulf granular mid about 1,125 dollars per tonne as of 1 July 2026 is still the last structured Gulf anchor. Middle East October producer contracts on Shanghai Metals Market's 8 October notice span 820 to 890 dollars per tonne FOB, with QatarEnergy at 835 dollars as the displayed Middle East mid, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation at 820 dollars, and ADNOC at 890 dollars FOB Ruwais. No verified November 2026 QSP, KSP, or ADNOC OSP posting was on the desk pass. The last material open-news Tampa molten settlement remains third-quarter 2026 at 705 dollars per long ton delivered. USGS Mineral Industry Surveys remain paused during the ScienceBase migration, so monthly US production prints are still July 2026 at latest posted on the open index.

The October unwind on Chinese boards accelerated through the third week and paused only briefly into the weekend. Session path from open domestic feeds reads 6,076.75 yuan on 19 October after an 8.65 percent single-day drop, a second flat session at 6,076.75 yuan on 20 October, 5,776.75 yuan on 21 October, and two closes at 5,714.25 yuan on 22 and 23 October before the 26 October step to 5,614.25 yuan. Tonghuashun iFind on 23 October showed spot identical to the 基准 at 5,714.25 yuan, flat day on day, with the embedded table logging a 938.08 yuan or 14.10 percent loss over the prior week and a 2,038.08 yuan or 26.29 percent loss over the prior month through that close. SunSirs' 21 October market review described monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate operating rates just above 40 percent with theoretical producer losses exceeding 1,000 yuan per tonne, while 生意社 analysis on Sina Finance on 22 October put Hubei 55 percent powder MAP offers at 3,580 to 3,680 yuan per tonne ex-works and 100ppi's 22 October DAP quote board listed one Hubei agricultural 64 percent traditional DAP ex-works offer at 4,600 yuan per tonne. That demand freeze has tracked the 基准 slide from the 7,685.67 yuan month-open reference on 1 October, a 26.92 percent decline into the 26 October handle on desk rounding.

Coastal inventory wires turned modestly higher as prices broke lower. Shengyishe's 16:14 port wire on 26 October put monitored coastal elemental sulfur at 1.1219 million tonnes, up about 19 thousand tonnes from the 23 October wire for stocks as of 22 October at 1.1029 million tonnes, with Fangchenggang at 420 thousand tonnes, Zhanjiang at 350 thousand tonnes, Zhenjiang at 215 thousand tonnes, Dafeng at 82 thousand tonnes, Beihai at 18 thousand tonnes, and Nanjing at 10 thousand tonnes in the breakdown. The prior 21 October tally had been 1.1127 million tonnes. The rebuild is small in percentage terms but interrupts the late-October draw sequence that had accompanied the 基准 slide, giving import buyers a slightly higher cover figure when they negotiate against domestic offers. Customs commentary on the 100ppi feed cites China's September 2026 sulfur imports at 140,700 metric tonnes, down 48.33 percent month on month and 82.26 percent year on year, with January through September cumulative imports at 3.0593 million tonnes, down 61.81 percent versus the same period a year earlier in Shengyishe's 20 October republication of official trade data. Those lines are not a same-day print for 26 October, but they explain why traders watch port stocks and refinery offers when seaborne arrivals slow.

Shandong refinery lists remain below the national screen on liquid. Shandong Lihuayi on 26 October quoted industrial and liquid sulfur at 5,400 yuan per tonne on the 100ppi PriceSeek feed, down 300 yuan on the day, sitting below the 5,614.25 yuan 基准 but above Dongming Petrochemical's 22 October liquid quote at 5,350 yuan per tonne after hikes posted on that date. Dongming solid sulfur on 22 October held at 6,550 yuan per tonne on the same feed, a single refinery band that sits above the national 基准 on prilled solid in the open quote table. Treat plant ticks as one-producer quotes, not a market bottom call.

Alberta inventory remains a verified_public August close. The Alberta Energy Regulator ST3 file, run date 28 September 2026, puts province-wide closing inventory at 11,042,851.4 tonnes for August 2026, about 11.04 million tonnes in desk rounding, down from the July close of 11,109,610.9 tonnes. August production printed 328,937.3 tonnes and August removals from Alberta printed 178,425.2 tonnes, with year-to-date production through August at 2,759,234.3 tonnes and year-to-date removals at 1,305,435.1 tonnes. The August draw of roughly 67,000 tonnes keeps the stockpile on a slow remelt and removal path. No September 2026 ST3 close was on the open PDF at desk time.

Canada's export lane is still anchored on 2025 verified port totals and mid-2026 customs snapshots rather than a fresh Vancouver monthly for 2026. The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority 2025 Statistics Overview keeps sulphur through the port at 3,507,428 metric tonnes, up 5 percent year on year. Platform export history still shows the newest reported Vancouver month as September 2025 at about 386,000 tonnes on an industry_estimate run-rate, with August 2025 verified at 304,675 tonnes. Prior open SMM customs commentary put China August elemental sulfur imports at 272,323 tonnes, down 65.03 percent year on year, with Canada listed among top origins. Elemental sulfur under heading 2503 remained off Ottawa's September retaliation lists in prior open coverage, so Alberta forming plants still watch stem economics more than tariff headlines.

Freight netbacks still clear off the 15 October Vancouver FOB mid against softer yuan replacement cost. Platform netbacks.json as of 15 October uses the public_reference Vancouver mid of 835 dollars plus a Vancouver-China freight mid of about 28 dollars to imply about 863 dollars CFR China, versus an implied Middle East-China stack near 925 dollars when the October Middle East mid of 835 dollars is combined with a stress-period freight mid near 90 dollars. Those freight midpoints remain platform_estimate and industry_estimate lanes as of 1 July 2026, not new fixture prints. ChemPortal's 15 October sulphur dashboard freight row for Vancouver to China on 50 to 60 thousand tonne parcels at 38 to 43 dollars per tonne, stacked on the 830 to 840 dollar Vancouver FOB transactions, implies about 868 to 883 dollars CFR China before conversion and quality adjustments. ChemPriceHub's same mid-October roundup put spot FOB Middle East ex-Iran at 740 to 790 dollars per tonne versus 810 to 850 dollars the prior week, with India CFR at 880 to 894 versus 930 to 980 and Indonesia CFR at 860 to 880 versus 930 to 950, framing how Gulf and Indian buyers cleared lower alongside Vancouver's fourth weekly FOB decline in that open note. Sulfur Wire does not paste licensed Argus or PetroGeneral weekly FOB assessment bands from ChemPortal's spot grid.

The corridor read into 26 October is therefore a Chinese 基准 break to 5,614.25 yuan and 1.1219 million tonne coastal cover against an unchanged 835 dollar Vancouver FOB mid and 11.04 million tonne Alberta block stock. Public_reference hubs still show Vancouver granular mid 835 dollars as of 15 October, US Gulf mid 1,125 dollars, Tampa molten 705 dollars per long ton, and Middle East mid 835 dollars on October contracts. Phosphate run rates near 40 percent and the September import collapse to 140,700 tonnes remain the demand-side anchors behind the yuan screen. Canada on a multi-year export upswing with 2025 Vancouver throughput at 3.51 million tonnes remains the Pacific clearance record when enquiry returns.

Key points

  • Shengyishe 100ppi 26 Oct 16:22 (verified_public): national sulfur 基准 5,614.25 yuan/t, down 100 yuan d/d (-1.75%); new three-month low vs high 9,535.67 yuan and avg 8,160.06 yuan on rawmex header.
  • iFind 26 Oct: no distinct spot close by desk time; page shell still 5,714.25 yuan/t (lagging). iFind 23 Oct spot 5,714.25 yuan/t, week -938.08 yuan (-14.10%), month -2,038.08 yuan (-26.29%).
  • China coastal sulfur stocks: 1.1219 Mt on 26 Oct port wire (vs 1.1029 Mt as of 22 Oct); Fangchenggang 420 kt; Zhanjiang 350 kt; Zhenjiang 215 kt; Dafeng 82 kt; Beihai 18 kt; Nanjing 10 kt.
  • Shandong Lihuayi 26 Oct: industrial/liquid sulfur 5,400 yuan/t, down 300 yuan d/d (100ppi PriceSeek). Dongming 22 Oct: liquid 5,350 yuan/t; solid 6,550 yuan/t.
  • ChemPriceHub 15 Oct (industry_estimate): Vancouver FOB 830 to 840 dollars/t (mid 835); down 50 dollars/t on week; ME spot ex-Iran 740 to 790; India CFR 880 to 894; Indonesia CFR 860 to 880.
  • Platform hubs as of 26 Oct series: Vancouver 835 dollars/t (15 Oct); US Gulf 1,125 dollars/t (1 Jul); Tampa molten 705 dollars/lt (Q3 open-news); ME FOB mid 835 dollars/t (Oct QatarEnergy on SMM; producer span 820 to 890). No November ME contracts on open desk pass.
  • SunSirs 21 Oct: MAP/DAP operating rates just above 40%; theoretical producer losses exceed 1,000 yuan/t. 生意社 22 Oct: Hubei 55% MAP 3,580 to 3,680 yuan/t ex-works; 100ppi 22 Oct DAP list 4,600 yuan/t (64% agricultural).
  • China customs via 100ppi 20 Oct: Sep 2026 sulfur imports 140,700 t (-48.33% m/m, -82.26% y/y); Jan to Sep 3.0593 Mt (-61.81% y/y).
  • AER ST3 Aug 2026 (run date 28 Sep 2026): Alberta closing inventory 11,042,851.4 t (~11.04 Mt); Aug production 328,937.3 t; Aug removals 178,425.2 t; Jul close 11,109,610.9 t (verified_public).
  • VFPA 2025 sulphur throughput: 3,507,428 t (+5% y/y). Newest platform Vancouver month: Sep 2025 ~386 kt (industry_estimate); Aug 2025 304,675 t (verified_public).
  • Freight/netback context: platform Van mid 835 plus ~28 freight to ~863 implied CFR China; ME mid 835 plus ~90 freight to ~925 implied CFR China (netbacks.json as of 15 Oct; freight lanes as of 1 Jul 2026). ChemPortal 15 Oct: Vancouver to China 38 to 43 dollars/t on 50 to 60 kt to about 868 to 883 stacked on 830 to 840 FOB.
  • UNCERTAIN: iFind confirmation of 5,614.25 yuan spot; next open Vancouver FOB sale print after 15 Oct; AER ST3 September close; November Middle East producer contracts; whether 1.12 Mt coastal cover caps further 基准 slides with phosphate runs still near 40%.

30-day watchlist

  • Shengyishe 基准 and iFind spot path through 5,600 yuan with port stocks above 1.12 Mt.
  • November Middle East QSP, KSP, and ADNOC OSP postings on open SMM or trade press feeds.
  • Open trade-press Vancouver FOB band revisions after the 15 October 830 to 840 dollar ChemPriceHub print.
  • MAP and DAP operating rates and Hubei offer stacks versus the 4,600 yuan DAP list anchor.
  • AER ST3 September closing inventory when the current PDF updates beyond August 2026.
  • VFPA monthly updates and StatCan HS 2503 tables that change 2026 export pace versus 2025's 3.51 Mt Vancouver print.
  • ChemPortal or ChemPriceHub open freight and CFR rows for Vancouver-China and Middle East ex-Iran versus platform mids.
  • Open Tampa or US Gulf granular prints that refresh the July contract and spot anchors.

Sources

Public reference summary for recovered sulfur logistics and open trade-press context. Not investment advice. Licensed Argus/Platts weekly assessment numbers are not reproduced here.

Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints Mt 2022 12 2023 12 2024 12 2025 11 2026 11 AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)
Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)

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2026-10-19Outlook stream