Sulfur Wire North American sulfur intelligence

Outlook · 2026-11-02

China sulfur benchmark slips to 5,224.25 yuan/t on November spot cut as Shandong lists fall and Gulf November contracts stay unposted

North America map of sulfur hubs
North American recovered-sulfur geography: Alberta inventory, Vancouver stem, US Gulf and Tampa. Sulfur Wire · Original
Formed sulfur at a Pacific bulk terminal, the visual of Alberta tonnes waiting on the Vancouver stem.
Formed sulfur at a Pacific bulk terminal, the visual of Alberta tonnes waiting on the Vancouver stem.

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The North American sulfur desk opened the first full November week with the Chinese domestic benchmark holding the month-start print through the morning and then breaking lower on the afternoon spot table, coastal port cover still anchored on a late-October wire at 1.125 million tonnes, and unchanged open-dollar Pacific hubs that continue to frame Vancouver granular FOB near 835 dollars per metric tonne. Shengyishe's 100ppi rawmex screen at 14:30 on 2 November put the national sulfur benchmark at 5,224.25 yuan per tonne, down 120 yuan or 2.25 percent from the 5,344.25 yuan close that had matched the flat 1 November session and the month-open reference, with the header marking a fresh three-month low against a three-month high of 9,535.67 yuan and a three-month average of 7,872.38 yuan on the same feed. The 08:30 benchmark notice had left 5,344.25 yuan unchanged versus the start of November at 0.00 percent before the granular spot table at 16:07 listed 5,224.25 yuan per tonne versus yesterday's 5,344.25 yuan, the cross-feed that confirmed the afternoon move. ChemPriceHub's 15 October international roundup remains the latest structured Vancouver FOB print in the platform series at 830 to 840 dollars per tonne with transactions inside the band, mid 835 dollars, down 50 dollars on the week in that open note. FOB US Gulf granular mid about 1,125 dollars per tonne as of 1 July 2026 is still the last structured Gulf export anchor in the index. Middle East October producer contracts on Shanghai Metals Market's 8 October notice span 820 to 890 dollars per tonne FOB, with QatarEnergy at 835 dollars as the displayed Middle East mid, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation at 820 dollars, and ADNOC at 890 dollars FOB Ruwais. No verified November 2026 QSP, KSP, ADNOC OSP, or Saudi Aramco monthly sulfur contract posting was on the desk pass. The last material open-news Tampa molten settlement remains third-quarter 2026 at 705 dollars per long ton delivered per Argus open coverage. USGS Mineral Industry Surveys remain the July 2026 ceiling on monthly US production prints when the national minerals page is reachable from desk egress.

The October unwind on Chinese boards carried into November after a brief pause at the month-open low. Open feeds read 5,614.25 yuan on 26 October, 5,551.75 yuan on 29 October, 5,344.25 yuan on 30 October, a flat 1 November at 5,344.25 yuan, and 5,224.25 yuan on 2 November. Tonghuashun iFind on 30 October matched the benchmark at 5,344.25 yuan, down 207.5 yuan or 3.74 percent day on day, with week minus 370 yuan and month minus 2,341.42 yuan on the same table. SunSirs' 21 October review put MAP and DAP operating rates just above 40 percent with theoretical producer losses exceeding 1,000 yuan per tonne, while 生意社 on Sina Finance on 22 October put Hubei 55 percent powder MAP at 3,580 to 3,680 yuan per tonne ex-works and 100ppi's 22 October DAP board listed one Hubei 64 percent agricultural offer at 4,600 yuan per tonne. That demand freeze tracks the slide from the 7,685.67 yuan month-start reference on 1 October, a 32 percent decline into the 2 November handle on desk rounding.

Coastal inventory wires have not refreshed since the late-October release but remain central to import negotiation. Shengyishe's monitored coastal elemental sulfur on the 100ppi wire stayed 1.1251 million tonnes as of 28 October, with Fangchenggang at 420 thousand tonnes, Zhanjiang at 350 thousand tonnes, Zhenjiang at 218 thousand tonnes, Dafeng at 82 thousand tonnes, Beihai at 18 thousand tonnes, and Nanjing at 10 thousand tonnes in the breakdown. The tally was unchanged from the prior inventory wire and sits modestly above the 1.1029 million tonne reading as of 22 October that had accompanied the late-October benchmark slide, giving import buyers a stable cover figure when they negotiate against domestic offers. Customs commentary on the 100ppi feed cites China's September 2026 sulfur imports at 140,700 metric tonnes, down 48.33 percent month on month and 82.26 percent year on year, with January through September cumulative imports at 3.0593 million tonnes, down 61.81 percent versus the same period a year earlier in Shengyishe's 20 October republication of official trade data. Those lines are not a same-day print for 2 November, but they explain why traders watch port stocks and refinery offers when seaborne arrivals slow.

Shandong refinery lists moved lower with the national screen on 2 November. Dongming Petrochemical on the 100ppi PriceSeek feed quoted liquid sulfur at 5,350 yuan per tonne and solid sulfur at 6,000 yuan per tonne after cuts of 50 and 300 yuan respectively on the session, sitting above the 5,224.25 yuan benchmark on liquid but aligned with the spot direction. Li Huayi liquid and industrial sulfur printed 5,070 yuan per tonne after a 300 yuan reduction on the same feed, a plant band that sits closer to the national benchmark than Dongming liquid. Shengyishe's mean-spread monitor on 2 November put the sulfur spread at minus 419.07 yuan per tonne, defined as the 10-day moving average minus the 20-day average at 5,498.00 minus 5,917.07, described as a continuing negative narrowing that signals slower downside momentum rather than a confirmed reversal. Treat plant ticks as one-producer quotes, not a market bottom call.

Alberta inventory remains a verified_public August close. The Alberta Energy Regulator ST3 file, run date 28 September 2026, puts province-wide closing inventory at 11,042,851.4 tonnes for August 2026, about 11.04 million tonnes in desk rounding, down from the July close of 11,109,610.9 tonnes. August production printed 328,937.3 tonnes and August removals from Alberta printed 178,425.2 tonnes, with year-to-date production through August at 2,759,234.3 tonnes and year-to-date removals at 1,305,435.1 tonnes. The August draw of roughly 67,000 tonnes keeps the stockpile on a slow remelt and removal path. No September 2026 ST3 close was on the open PDF at desk time.

Canada's export lane is still anchored on 2025 verified port totals and mid-2026 customs snapshots rather than a fresh Vancouver monthly for 2026. The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority 2025 Statistics Overview keeps sulphur through the port at 3,507,428 metric tonnes, up 5 percent year on year. Platform export history still shows the newest reported Vancouver month as September 2025 at about 386,000 tonnes on an industry_estimate run-rate, with August 2025 verified at 304,675 tonnes. Prior open SMM customs commentary put China August elemental sulfur imports at 272,323 tonnes, down 65.03 percent year on year, with Canada listed among top origins. Elemental sulfur under heading 2503 remained off Ottawa's September retaliation lists in prior open coverage, so Alberta forming plants still watch stem economics more than tariff headlines.

Freight netbacks still clear off the 15 October Vancouver FOB mid against softer yuan replacement cost. Platform netbacks.json as of 15 October uses the public_reference Vancouver mid of 835 dollars plus a Vancouver-China freight mid of about 28 dollars to imply about 863 dollars CFR China, versus an implied Middle East-China stack near 925 dollars when the October Middle East mid of 835 dollars is combined with a stress-period freight mid near 90 dollars. Those freight midpoints remain platform_estimate and industry_estimate lanes as of 1 July 2026, not new fixture prints. ChemPortal's 15 October sulphur dashboard freight row for Vancouver to China on 50 to 60 thousand tonne parcels at 38 to 43 dollars per tonne, stacked on the 830 to 840 dollar Vancouver FOB transactions, implies about 868 to 883 dollars CFR China before conversion and quality adjustments. ChemPriceHub's same mid-October roundup put spot FOB Middle East ex-Iran at 740 to 790 dollars per tonne versus 810 to 850 dollars the prior week, with India CFR at 880 to 894 versus 930 to 980 and Indonesia CFR at 860 to 880 versus 930 to 950, framing how Gulf and Indian buyers cleared lower alongside Vancouver's fourth weekly FOB decline in that open note. Sulfur Wire does not paste licensed Argus or PetroGeneral weekly FOB assessment bands from ChemPortal's spot grid.

The corridor read into 2 November is therefore a Chinese benchmark break to 5,224.25 yuan and 1.1251 million tonne coastal cover on a stale wire against an unchanged 835 dollar Vancouver FOB mid and 11.04 million tonne Alberta block stock. Public_reference hubs still show Vancouver granular mid 835 dollars as of 15 October, US Gulf mid 1,125 dollars, Tampa molten 705 dollars per long ton on the third-quarter open-news print, and Middle East mid 835 dollars on October contracts with November nominations still absent. Phosphate run rates near 40 percent and the September import collapse to 140,700 tonnes remain the demand-side anchors behind the yuan screen. Canada on a multi-year export upswing with 2025 Vancouver throughput at 3.51 million tonnes remains the Pacific clearance record when enquiry returns.

Key points

  • Shengyishe 100ppi 2 Nov 14:30 (verified_public): national sulfur benchmark 5,224.25 yuan/t, down 120 yuan d/d (-2.25%); morning notice flat 5,344.25 yuan/t; three-month low vs high 9,535.67 yuan and avg 7,872.38 yuan on rawmex header.
  • 100ppi spot table 2 Nov 16:07: granular sulfur 5,224.25 yuan/t vs yesterday 5,344.25 yuan/t (verified_public).
  • Session path: 26 Oct 5,614.25; 29 Oct 5,551.75; 30 Oct 5,344.25; 1 Nov flat 5,344.25; 2 Nov 5,224.25 yuan/t.
  • iFind 30 Oct spot 5,344.25 yuan/t, d/d -207.5 yuan (-3.74%); week -370 yuan (-6.48%); month -2,341.42 yuan (-30.46%).
  • China coastal sulfur stocks: 1.1251 Mt as of 28 Oct port wire (stale); Fangchenggang 420 kt; Zhanjiang 350 kt; Zhenjiang 218 kt; Dafeng 82 kt; Beihai 18 kt; Nanjing 10 kt.
  • Shandong Dongming 2 Nov: liquid 5,350 yuan/t (-50 d/d); solid 6,000 yuan/t (-300 d/d). Li Huayi 2 Nov: liquid/industrial 5,070 yuan/t (-300 d/d) on 100ppi PriceSeek.
  • 100ppi mean-spread 2 Nov: -419.07 yuan/t (10-day 5,498.00 minus 20-day 5,917.07); negative narrowing per house monitor.
  • ChemPriceHub 15 Oct (industry_estimate): Vancouver FOB 830 to 840 dollars/t (mid 835); down 50 dollars/t on week; ME spot ex-Iran 740 to 790; India CFR 880 to 894; Indonesia CFR 860 to 880.
  • Platform hubs as of 2 Nov series: Vancouver 835 dollars/t (15 Oct); US Gulf 1,125 dollars/t (1 Jul); Tampa molten 705 dollars/lt (Q3 open-news); ME FOB mid 835 dollars/t (Oct QatarEnergy on SMM; producer span 820 to 890). No November ME contracts on open desk pass.
  • SunSirs 21 Oct: MAP/DAP operating rates just above 40%; theoretical producer losses exceed 1,000 yuan/t. 生意社 22 Oct: Hubei 55% MAP 3,580 to 3,680 yuan/t ex-works; 100ppi 22 Oct DAP list 4,600 yuan/t (64% agricultural).
  • China customs via 100ppi 20 Oct: Sep 2026 sulfur imports 140,700 t (-48.33% m/m, -82.26% y/y); Jan to Sep 3.0593 Mt (-61.81% y/y).
  • AER ST3 Aug 2026 (run date 28 Sep 2026): Alberta closing inventory 11,042,851.4 t (~11.04 Mt); Aug production 328,937.3 t; Aug removals 178,425.2 t; Jul close 11,109,610.9 t (verified_public).
  • VFPA 2025 sulphur throughput: 3,507,428 t (+5% y/y). Newest platform Vancouver month: Sep 2025 ~386 kt (industry_estimate); Aug 2025 304,675 t (verified_public).
  • Freight/netback context: platform Van mid 835 plus ~28 freight to ~863 implied CFR China; ME mid 835 plus ~90 freight to ~925 implied CFR China (netbacks.json as of 15 Oct; freight lanes as of 1 Jul 2026). ChemPortal 15 Oct: Vancouver to China 38 to 43 dollars/t on 50 to 60 kt to about 868 to 883 stacked on 830 to 840 FOB.
  • UNCERTAIN: fresh coastal inventory wire after 28 Oct; iFind confirmation of 5,224.25 yuan spot; next open Vancouver FOB sale print after 15 Oct; AER ST3 September close; November Middle East producer contracts; whether minus 419 yuan mean-spread caps further benchmark slides with phosphate runs still near 40%.

30-day watchlist

  • Shengyishe benchmark and iFind spot path through 5,200 yuan with port stocks still near 1.125 Mt on stale wires.
  • November Middle East QSP, KSP, and ADNOC OSP postings on open SMM or trade press feeds.
  • Open trade-press Vancouver FOB band revisions after the 15 October 830 to 840 dollar ChemPriceHub print.
  • MAP and DAP operating rates and Hubei offer stacks versus the 4,600 yuan DAP list anchor.
  • AER ST3 September closing inventory when the current PDF updates beyond August 2026.
  • VFPA monthly updates and StatCan HS 2503 tables that change 2026 export pace versus 2025's 3.51 Mt Vancouver print.
  • ChemPortal or ChemPriceHub open freight and CFR rows for Vancouver-China and Middle East ex-Iran versus platform mids.
  • Open Tampa or US Gulf granular prints that refresh the July contract and spot anchors alongside the 705 dollar per long ton third-quarter molten settlement.

Sources

Public reference summary for recovered sulfur logistics and open trade-press context. Not investment advice. Licensed Argus/Platts weekly assessment numbers are not reproduced here.

Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints Mt 2022 12 2023 12 2024 12 2025 11 2026 11 AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)
Alberta sulfur inventory, year-end prints AER ST3 closing inventory (verified_public)

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2026-10-26Outlook stream